Magnus Mattsson
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Magnus Mattsson's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.6M-4.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.5M-3.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.95x the positional average in the league (457 minutes, league coefficient 0.47). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Below average | 24.6th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €2.7M vs market €4.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -44% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.47 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1164 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 457 (23% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.59
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.21
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 25 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.47 (rank 12)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1359
- Opponent strength
- 1212
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.5M – €3.7M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 27 pts; league level up (+45 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -55% (IQR -81% to -33%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Small sample: 457 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.47 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 23 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 68%–122%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 65%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Copenhagen | Superliga | CM | 6 | 457 | 23% | 2 | 1 | 0.59 | 0.21 | 1212 | 1359 | 0.47 |
| 2024/25 | FC Copenhagen | Superliga | CM | 22 | 990 | 50% | 2 | 2 | 0.36 | 0.18 | 1288 | 1399 | 0.38 |
| 2023/24 | NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie | AM | 19 | 1710 | 56% | 11 | 4 | 0.79 | 0.73 | 1368 | 1336 | 0.48 |
| 2023/24 | FC Copenhagen | Superliga | CM | 5 | 397 | 20% | 2 | 1 | 0.68 | 0.27 | 1309 | 1517 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie | LW | 25 | 1817 | 59% | 4 | 2 | 0.30 | 0.41 | 1353 | 1266 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie | LW | 27 | 1750 | 57% | 4 | 0 | 0.21 | 0.35 | 1351 | 1243 | 0.60 |
| 2017/18 | Silkeborg IF | Superliga | AM | 6 | 280 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.39 | 1316 | 1183 | 0.47 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | FC Copenhagen | 5 | 197 | 3 | 0 | 1405 |
| 2024/25 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Copenhagen | 7 | 357 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | FC Copenhagen | 6 | 312 | 0 | 1 | 1326 |
| 2023/24 | Knvb Beker | NEC Nijmegen | 3 | 270 | 2 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | FC Copenhagen | 2 | 113 | 1 | 0 | 1895 |
| 2022/23 | Knvb Beker | NEC Nijmegen | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Knvb Beker | NEC Nijmegen | 3 | 185 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2017/18 | Oddset Pokalen | Silkeborg IF | 4 | 304 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rifat Zhemaletdinov Premier Liga · 2023 | 27 | €5.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Diadié Samassékou Super League 1 · 2023 | 27 | €7.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Abdülkadir Ömür Super Lig · 2024 | 25 | €7.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Erick Pulgar Super Lig · 2022 | 28 | €6.5M | €5.0M | fell |
| Enis Bardhi Super Lig · 2023 | 28 | €4.7M | €3.0M | fell |
| Endri Cekici Super Lig · 2023 | 27 | €3.2M | €1.3M | fell |
| Adem Ljajic Super Lig · 2021 | 30 | €6.0M | €500k | fell |
| Abdoulaye Touré Serie A · 2022 | 28 | €2.5M | €3.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Feb 2024 | NEC Nijmegen | Copenhagen | €5.0M | €3.0M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Silkeborg IF | NEC Nijmegen | €500k | €700k |
| 8 Mar 2018 | Silkeborg U19 | Silkeborg IF | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Silkeborg Yth. | Silkeborg U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.