Kristall Máni Ingason
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Kristall Máni Ingason's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-0.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.7M-2.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.0M-3.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.64x the positional average in the league (952 minutes, league coefficient 0.47). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 93
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 13.4th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.2M vs market €1.8M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +14% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.47 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 952 (48% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.76
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.66
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 13 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.47 (rank 14)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1242
- Opponent strength
- 1275
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.0M – €3.1M
Trajectory drivers: team strength up (+181 Elo); league level up (+45 Elo); role change ST -> AM; relative output up 64% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -27% (IQR -35% to +7%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 952 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.47 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 23 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 68%–122%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 65%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Sönderjyske Fodbold | Superliga | AM | 14 | 952 | 48% | 6 | 2 | 0.76 | 0.66 | 1275 | 1242 | 0.47 |
| 2024/25 | Sönderjyske Fodbold | Superliga | ST | 15 | 1135 | 57% | 1 | 2 | 0.24 | 0.53 | 1316 | 1062 | 0.38 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Sportsklubben Brann | 2 | 129 | 0 | 0 | 1540 |
| 2025/26 | Oddset Pokalen | Sönderjyske Fodbold | 2 | 67 | 1 | 2 | — |
| 2024/25 | Oddset Pokalen | Sönderjyske Fodbold | 1 | 27 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirill Kaplenko Premier Liga · 2024 | 25 | €1.2M | €350k | fell |
| Farouk Miya Super Lig · 2020 | 23 | €2.0M | €1.2M | fell |
| Stefán Teitur Thórdarson Superliga · 2024 | 26 | €1.8M | €1.2M | fell |
| Kristijan Bistrovic Super Lig · 2021 | 23 | €2.5M | €2.5M | flat |
| Emiliano Marcondes Superliga · 2017 | 22 | €1.0M | €1.5M | rose |
| Vladislav Kamilov Premier Liga · 2021 | 26 | €1.0M | €800k | fell |
| Cammy Devlin Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 25 | €750k | €1.0M | rose |
| Liam Kelly Scottish Premiership · 2013 | 23 | €750k | €500k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jan 2026 | Sönderjyske | SK Brann | €1.4M | €900k |
| 19 Jul 2023 | Rosenborg BK | Sönderjyske | €150k | €400k |
| 1 Aug 2022 | Víkingur | Rosenborg BK | €200k | €125k |
| 22 Feb 2021 | Copenhagen U19 | Víkingur | Unknown | €50k |
| 31 Dec 2020 | Víkingur | Copenhagen U19 | Free / loan | €50k |
| 3 Jun 2020 | Copenhagen U19 | Víkingur | Free / loan | €25k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | FCK Youth | Copenhagen U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Feb 2018 | Fjölnir U19 | FCK Youth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.