Ilias Bronkhorst
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ilias Bronkhorst's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-0.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-0.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 91
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 13.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €353k vs market €700k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -18% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2348 (77% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.15
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.19
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 13 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1183
- Opponent strength
- 1311
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €363k – €678k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -21% (IQR -32% to -8%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 82 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 65%–166%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Excelsior Rotterdam | Eredivisie | RB | 33 | 2348 | 77% | 2 | 2 | 0.15 | 0.19 | 1311 | 1183 | 0.43 |
| 2022/23 | NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie | ST | 4 | 47 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.53 | 1285 | 1266 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie | ST | 12 | 185 | 6% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.52 | 1326 | 1243 | 0.60 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | Excelsior Rotterdam | 1 | 58 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Knvb Beker | NEC Nijmegen | 2 | 95 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Knvb Beker | NEC Nijmegen | 3 | 270 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bruno Duarte Super League 1 · 2024 | 29 | €500k | €500k | flat |
| Mathieu Gomes Super League 1 · 2015 | 30 | €500k | €350k | fell |
| Carlens Arcus Eredivisie · 2024 | 28 | €700k | €1.8M | rose |
| Stelios Kitsiou Super Lig · 2023 | 30 | €900k | €550k | fell |
| Jordi Amat Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 30 | €1.0M | €800k | fell |
| Epaminondas Pantelakis Super League 1 · 2024 | 29 | €450k | €400k | flat |
| Giannis Potouridis Super League 1 · 2019 | 27 | €450k | €350k | fell |
| Raúl Llorente Super League 1 · 2015 | 29 | €500k | €250k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Excelsior | Without Club | Unknown | €700k |
| 6 Aug 2024 | FC Dordrecht | Excelsior | Free / loan | €350k |
| 25 Aug 2023 | NEC Nijmegen | FC Dordrecht | Free / loan | €225k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Telstar | NEC Nijmegen | Unknown | €350k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Koninklijke HFC | Telstar | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Kon. HFC 2 | Koninklijke HFC | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Kon. HFC U19 | Kon. HFC 2 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.