Alexis Duarte
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Alexis Duarte's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-2.1M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.5M-2.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.8M-2.0M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Average | 44.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.3M vs market €1.8M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -23% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1269 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 486 (18% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.04
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 44 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 7)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1443
- Opponent strength
- 1351
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €820k – €2.0M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 22 pts; relative output down 25% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -52% (IQR -69% to -10%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 486 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 25 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 48%–200%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 72%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FK Spartak Moskva | Premier Liga | CB | 6 | 486 | 18% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1351 | 1443 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | FK Spartak Moskva | Premier Liga | CB | 15 | 1068 | 40% | 0 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.05 | 1291 | 1470 | 0.55 |
| 2023/24 | FK Spartak Moskva | Premier Liga | CB | 27 | 2292 | 85% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1338 | 1383 | 0.49 |
| 2022/23 | FK Spartak Moskva | Premier Liga | CB | 7 | 462 | 17% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1352 | 1394 | 0.53 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | FK Spartak Moskva | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | FK Spartak Moskva | 4 | 289 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | FK Spartak Moskva | 5 | 271 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Russian Cup | FK Spartak Moskva | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bogdan Mykhaylichenko Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 25 | €1.5M | €2.5M | rose |
| Mert Çetin Super Lig · 2023 | 26 | €1.2M | €700k | fell |
| Bram Nuytinck Jupiler Pro League · 2015 | 25 | €2.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Luca Marrone Jupiler Pro League · 2017 | 27 | €2.0M | €800k | fell |
| Ilya Kutepov Premier Liga · 2020 | 27 | €2.8M | €900k | fell |
| Bryan Idowu Premier Liga · 2020 | 28 | €950k | €1.2M | rose |
| Simen Juklerød Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 28 | €1.5M | €400k | fell |
| Ricardo Ferreira Liga Portugal · 2018 | 26 | €1.8M | €475k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Apr 2026 | Libertad | Santos | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 27 Feb 2026 | Santos | Libertad | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 2 Sept 2025 | Spartak Moscow | Santos | €3.4M | €3.0M |
| 24 Jan 2023 | Cerro Porteño | Spartak Moscow | €4.0M | €4.0M |
| 7 Jan 2020 | Club Cerro U23 | Cerro Porteño | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Cerro U20 | Club Cerro U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.