Atsuki Ito
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Atsuki Ito's performance-implied value at EUR 1.2M-3.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.9M-2.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.9M-2.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.24x the positional average in the league (2055 minutes, league coefficient 0.65). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 75
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 47.9th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.5M vs market €2.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -24% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2055 (76% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.31
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.27
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 48 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 6)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1403
- Opponent strength
- 1374
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €892k – €2.8M
Trajectory drivers: relative output up 64% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -32% (IQR -50% to -26%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 60 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 63%–142%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 72%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | KAA Gent | Jupiler Pro League | CM | 26 | 2055 | 76% | 4 | 3 | 0.31 | 0.27 | 1374 | 1403 | 0.65 |
| 2024/25 | KAA Gent | Jupiler Pro League | CM | 25 | 1912 | 71% | 2 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.16 | 1387 | 1422 | 0.63 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Jupiler Pro League Playoff I | KAA Gent | 3 | 57 | 0 | 0 | 1550 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | KAA Gent | 1 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1407 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sander van de Streek Eredivisie · 2021 | 28 | €2.0M | €1.6M | fell |
| Soner Aydoğdu Super Lig · 2018 | 27 | €2.0M | €1.4M | fell |
| Damien Marcq Jupiler Pro League · 2017 | 29 | €1.7M | €600k | fell |
| Fernando Alexandre Liga Portugal · 2014 | 29 | €1.5M | €750k | fell |
| Dmytro Grechyshkin Premier Liga · 2018 | 27 | €1.2M | €800k | fell |
| Philip Zinckernagel Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 29 | €4.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Mathieu Maertens Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 28 | €2.5M | €1.8M | fell |
| Hidemasa Morita Liga Portugal · 2022 | 27 | €4.0M | €15.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Aug 2024 | Urawa Reds | KAA Gent | €1.3M | €1.5M |
| 1 Feb 2021 | RKU | Urawa Reds | Free / loan | €50k |
| 31 Jan 2021 | Urawa Reds | RKU | Free / loan | €50k |
| 24 Jun 2020 | RKU | Urawa Reds | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Apr 2017 | Urawa Reds U18 | RKU | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.