Hidemasa Morita
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Hidemasa Morita's performance-implied value at EUR 3.5M-13.9M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.7M-8.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.8M-4.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.60x the positional average in the league (1834 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 3
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 75.7th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 31.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €4.8M vs market €8.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -67% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1834 (60% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.24
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.13
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 76 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1656
- Opponent strength
- 1302
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.8M – €4.2M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 18 pts; relative output down 24% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -55% (IQR -67% to -30%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 72%–151%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Sporting CP | Liga Portugal | CM | 31 | 1834 | 60% | 1 | 4 | 0.25 | 0.13 | 1302 | 1656 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | Sporting CP | Liga Portugal | CM | 23 | 1294 | 42% | 2 | 3 | 0.35 | 0.17 | 1358 | 1610 | 0.51 |
| 2023/24 | Sporting CP | Liga Portugal | CM | 29 | 2145 | 70% | 2 | 4 | 0.25 | 0.13 | 1374 | 1675 | 0.58 |
| 2022/23 | Sporting CP | Liga Portugal | DM | 29 | 1964 | 64% | 6 | 3 | 0.41 | 0.21 | 1376 | 1669 | 0.68 |
| 2021/22 | CD Santa Clara | Liga Portugal | DM | 28 | 2279 | 74% | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.13 | 1380 | 1391 | 0.67 |
| 2020/21 | CD Santa Clara | Liga Portugal | DM | 20 | 1800 | 59% | 2 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.16 | 1338 | 1358 | 0.61 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Sporting CP | 11 | 466 | 0 | 1 | 1732 |
| 2025/26 | Supercup Candido De Oliveira | Sporting CP | 1 | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1617 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Sporting CP | 7 | 371 | 0 | 0 | 1688 |
| 2024/25 | Supercup Candido De Oliveira | Sporting CP | 1 | 89 | 0 | 0 | 1628 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Sporting CP | 7 | 442 | 0 | 0 | 1544 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Sporting CP | 5 | 334 | 0 | 1 | 1631 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Sporting CP | 4 | 323 | 0 | 0 | 1644 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | CD Santa Clara | 6 | 474 | 1 | 0 | 1404 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Götze Eredivisie · 2022 | 30 | €10.0M | €5.5M | fell |
| Diego Super Lig · 2016 | 31 | €6.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Adel Taarabt Liga Portugal · 2021 | 32 | €4.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Davy Klaassen Eredivisie · 2023 | 30 | €10.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Ricardo Esgaio Liga Portugal · 2024 | 31 | €3.0M | €700k | fell |
| Diego Souza Premier Liga · 2014 | 29 | €6.0M | €5.0M | flat |
| João Mário Liga Portugal · 2021 | 28 | €12.0M | €14.0M | flat |
| Fred Super Lig · 2024 | 31 | €17.0M | €4.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Sporting | Without Club | Unknown | €8.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Santa Clara | Sporting | €3.5M | €4.0M |
| 7 Jan 2021 | Kawasaki Front. | Santa Clara | Free / loan | €1.3M |
| 1 Feb 2018 | RKU | Kawasaki Front. | Free / loan | €50k |
| 31 Jan 2018 | Kawasaki Front. | RKU | Free / loan | €50k |
| 15 Sept 2017 | RKU | Kawasaki Front. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Apr 2014 | High School (J) | RKU | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.