
Emil Holm
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Emil Holm's performance-implied value at EUR 3.0M-11.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 5.7M-11.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.8M-12.3M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Above average | 67.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €9.1M vs market €10.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -27% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1269 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 884 (26% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.51
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.39
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 67 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1546
- Opponent strength
- 1477
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.8M – €12.3M
Trajectory drivers: relative output up 115% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -24% (IQR -52% to +29%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Small sample: 884 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Bologna Football Club 1909 | Serie A | RB | 11 | 657 | 19% | 1 | 4 | 0.68 | 0.39 | 1477 | 1523 | 0.93 |
| 2025/26 | Juventus FC | Serie A | RM | 7 | 227 | 7% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.19 | 1604 | 1614 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Bologna Football Club 1909 | Serie A | RB | 21 | 1135 | 33% | 1 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.14 | 1533 | 1559 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | Atalanta BC | Serie A | RM | 22 | 949 | 28% | 1 | 3 | 0.38 | 0.23 | 1450 | 1709 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | Spezia Calcio | Serie A | RM | 20 | 1399 | 41% | 1 | 2 | 0.19 | 0.28 | 1453 | 1310 | 0.94 |
| 2021/22 | Sönderjyske Fodbold | Superliga | RB | 21 | 1790 | 90% | 3 | 2 | 0.25 | 0.20 | 1280 | 1129 | 0.45 |
| 2020/21 | Sönderjyske Fodbold | Superliga | RM | 4 | 106 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.20 | 1225 | 1188 | 0.43 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Bologna Football Club 1909 | 5 | 313 | 0 | 0 | 1467 |
| 2025/26 | Supercoppa Italiana | Bologna Football Club 1909 | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1712 |
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Bologna Football Club 1909 | 1 | 90 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Juventus FC | 1 | 16 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | Bologna Football Club 1909 | 4 | 268 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Bologna Football Club 1909 | 4 | 230 | 0 | 0 | 1638 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Atalanta BC | 7 | 307 | 0 | 0 | 1639 |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | Atalanta BC | 3 | 269 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2022/23 | Italy Cup | Spezia Calcio | 3 | 85 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Oddset Pokalen | Sönderjyske Fodbold | 1 | 74 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Oddset Pokalen | Sönderjyske Fodbold | 4 | 298 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Idrottsföreningen Kamraterna Göteborg | 1 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1476 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Domenico Criscito Premier Liga · 2013 | 27 | €16.0M | €13.0M | flat |
| Youcef Atal Ligue 1 · 2022 | 26 | €15.0M | €4.3M | fell |
| Bastos Serie A · 2018 | 27 | €6.5M | €3.2M | fell |
| Gonzalo Montiel Laliga · 2022 | 25 | €14.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Yerson Mosquera Laliga · 2024 | 23 | €6.0M | €12.0M | rose |
| Pablo Armero Serie A · 2013 | 27 | €9.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Ainsley Maitland-Niles Ligue 1 · 2024 | 27 | €9.0M | €10.0M | flat |
| Medhi Benatia Serie A · 2013 | 26 | €13.0M | €26.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Juventus | Bologna | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 2 Feb 2026 | Bologna | Juventus | Free / loan | €13.0M |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Spezia Calcio | Bologna | €7.7M | €12.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Atalanta | Spezia Calcio | Free / loan | €12.0M |
| 31 Aug 2023 | Spezia Calcio | Atalanta | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | SönderjyskE | Spezia Calcio | Free / loan | €800k |
| 27 Aug 2021 | Spezia Calcio | SönderjyskE | Free / loan | €700k |
| 26 Aug 2021 | SönderjyskE | Spezia Calcio | €2.7M | €700k |
| 27 Jan 2021 | IFK Göteborg | SönderjyskE | €282k | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | IFK U19 | IFK Göteborg | Unknown | €100k |
| 1 Jan 2018 | IFK U17 | IFK U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.