Emil Holm

26 yrs · Right-back (also RM) · Sweden
Juventus FC · Serie A · Foot: right · Height: 191 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: LowSample: LowDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
Market value
€10.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€5.7M – €11.3M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€3.0M – €11.0M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€3.8M – €12.3M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€8.3M – €5.3M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€5.7M – €11.3M
Model value (performance-implied)€3.0M – €11.0M
Projected value (24 months)€3.8M – €12.3M
Dashed line: current market value (€10.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Emil Holm's performance-implied value at EUR 3.0M-11.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 5.7M-11.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.8M-12.3M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)

PerformanceAbove average67.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral26.1 years
Acquisition costNeutralest. €9.1M vs market €10.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-27% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery negativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.93
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceLow

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €13.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1269 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
884 (26% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.51
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.39
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
67 (Above average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.93 (rank 4)
Team strength (Elo)
1546
Opponent strength
1477
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€3.8M – €12.3M

Trajectory drivers: relative output up 115% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -24% (IQR -52% to +29%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ▲Small sample: 884 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Bologna Football Club 1909Serie ARB1165719%140.680.39147715230.93
2025/26Juventus FCSerie ARM72277%000.000.19160416140.93
2024/25Bologna Football Club 1909Serie ARB21113533%110.160.14153315590.99
2023/24Atalanta BCSerie ARM2294928%130.380.23145017090.98
2022/23Spezia CalcioSerie ARM20139941%120.190.28145313100.94
2021/22Sönderjyske FodboldSuperligaRB21179090%320.250.20128011290.45
2020/21Sönderjyske FodboldSuperligaRM41065%000.000.20122511880.43

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Europa LeagueBologna Football Club 19095313001467
2025/26Supercoppa ItalianaBologna Football Club 19092180001712
2025/26Italy CupBologna Football Club 190919001—
2025/26Italy CupJuventus FC11600—
2024/25Italy CupBologna Football Club 1909426800—
2024/25Uefa Champions LeagueBologna Football Club 19094230001638
2023/24Uefa Europa LeagueAtalanta BC7307001639
2023/24Italy CupAtalanta BC326901—
2022/23Italy CupSpezia Calcio38500—
2021/22Oddset PokalenSönderjyske Fodbold17400—
2020/21Oddset PokalenSönderjyske Fodbold429820—
2020/21Uefa Europa League QualifyingIdrottsföreningen Kamraterna Göteborg121001476

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Domenico Criscito
Premier Liga · 2013
27€16.0M€13.0Mflat
Youcef Atal
Ligue 1 · 2022
26€15.0M€4.3Mfell
Bastos
Serie A · 2018
27€6.5M€3.2Mfell
Gonzalo Montiel
Laliga · 2022
25€14.0M€10.0Mfell
Yerson Mosquera
Laliga · 2024
23€6.0M€12.0Mrose
Pablo Armero
Serie A · 2013
27€9.0M€4.0Mfell
Ainsley Maitland-Niles
Ligue 1 · 2024
27€9.0M€10.0Mflat
Medhi Benatia
Serie A · 2013
26€13.0M€26.0Mrose

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
30 Jun 2026JuventusBolognaFree / loan€10.0M
2 Feb 2026BolognaJuventusFree / loan€13.0M
1 Jul 2024Spezia CalcioBologna€7.7M€12.0M
30 Jun 2024AtalantaSpezia CalcioFree / loan€12.0M
31 Aug 2023Spezia CalcioAtalantaFree / loan€5.0M
30 Jun 2022SönderjyskESpezia CalcioFree / loan€800k
27 Aug 2021Spezia CalcioSönderjyskEFree / loan€700k
26 Aug 2021SönderjyskESpezia Calcio€2.7M€700k
27 Jan 2021IFK GöteborgSönderjyskE€282k€300k
1 Jul 2019IFK U19IFK GöteborgUnknown€100k
1 Jan 2018IFK U17IFK U19UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Emil Holm · MoneyballAI