Ainsley Maitland-Niles
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ainsley Maitland-Niles's performance-implied value at EUR 10.9M-17.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.9M-7.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.0M-7.9M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 63
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 90.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €3.8M vs market €10.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -44% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2486 (81% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.18
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.13
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 90 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1554
- Opponent strength
- 1468
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.0M – €7.9M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 17 pts; relative output down 25% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -33% (IQR -40% to -19%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Olympique Lyon | Ligue 1 | RB | 30 | 2486 | 81% | 1 | 4 | 0.18 | 0.13 | 1468 | 1554 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | Olympique Lyon | Ligue 1 | RB | 32 | 1976 | 65% | 1 | 4 | 0.23 | 0.16 | 1452 | 1571 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | Olympique Lyon | Ligue 1 | RB | 23 | 1432 | 47% | 1 | 4 | 0.31 | 0.26 | 1508 | 1521 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | Southampton FC | Premier League | CM | 22 | 1404 | 41% | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.15 | 1543 | 1375 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | Associazione Sportiva Roma | Serie A | LM | 8 | 491 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 1425 | 1589 | 0.89 |
| 2021/22 | Arsenal FC | Premier League | CM | 8 | 264 | 8% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 1477 | 1667 | 1.17 |
| 2020/21 | West Bromwich Albion | Premier League | CM | 15 | 1233 | 36% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 1565 | 1377 | 1.19 |
| 2020/21 | Arsenal FC | Premier League | CM | 11 | 486 | 14% | 0 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.18 | 1540 | 1688 | 1.19 |
| 2019/20 | Arsenal FC | Premier League | RB | 20 | 1383 | 40% | 0 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 1615 | 1641 | 1.14 |
| 2018/19 | Arsenal FC | Premier League | RB | 16 | 986 | 29% | 1 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.12 | 1536 | 1733 | 1.22 |
| 2017/18 | Arsenal FC | Premier League | CM | 15 | 908 | 27% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 1534 | 1665 | 1.15 |
| 2016/17 | Arsenal FC | Premier League | CM | 1 | 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 1424 | 1681 | 1.07 |
| 2014/15 | Arsenal FC | Premier League | CM | 1 | 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 1500 | 1729 | 1.06 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Olympique Lyon | 8 | 542 | 1 | 0 | 1428 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Olympique Lyon | 11 | 959 | 0 | 3 | 1525 |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Southampton FC | 2 | 165 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Italy Cup | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | Arsenal FC | 5 | 424 | 0 | 1 | 1429 |
| 2020/21 | Community Shield | Arsenal FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1842 |
| 2020/21 | Fa Cup | Arsenal FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | Arsenal FC | 6 | 290 | 0 | 0 | 1475 |
| 2019/20 | Fa Cup | Arsenal FC | 5 | 272 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | Arsenal FC | 10 | 805 | 1 | 2 | 1584 |
| 2018/19 | Fa Cup | Arsenal FC | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League | Arsenal FC | 9 | 703 | 0 | 0 | 1459 |
| 2017/18 | Fa Cup | Arsenal FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Fa Cup | Arsenal FC | 3 | 196 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2014/15 | Uefa Champions League | Arsenal FC | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | 1522 |
| 2014/15 | Fa Cup | Arsenal FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrea Ranocchia Serie A · 2015 | 27 | €10.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Amir Rrahmani Serie A · 2024 | 30 | €15.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Jordan Amavi Ligue 1 · 2020 | 26 | €9.5M | €6.0M | fell |
| Bouna Sarr Ligue 1 · 2020 | 28 | €6.5M | €2.5M | fell |
| José Luis Palomino Serie A · 2019 | 29 | €10.0M | €10.0M | flat |
| Gökhan Gönül Super Lig · 2014 | 29 | €9.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Mathieu Debuchy Ligue 1 · 2013 | 28 | €11.5M | €13.0M | flat |
| Roman Shishkin Premier Liga · 2014 | 27 | €4.0M | €3.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Aug 2023 | Arsenal | Lyon | Free / loan | €8.0M |
| 31 May 2023 | Southampton | Arsenal | Free / loan | €8.0M |
| 1 Sept 2022 | Arsenal | Southampton | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Roma | Arsenal | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 7 Jan 2022 | Arsenal | Roma | Free / loan | €12.0M |
| 31 May 2021 | West Brom | Arsenal | Free / loan | €18.0M |
| 1 Feb 2021 | Arsenal | West Brom | Free / loan | €18.0M |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Arsenal U23 | Arsenal | Unknown | €750k |
| 31 May 2016 | Ipswich | Arsenal U21 | Free / loan | €750k |
| 2 Jul 2015 | Arsenal U21 | Ipswich | Free / loan | €250k |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Arsenal U18 | Arsenal U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.