Yerson Mosquera
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Yerson Mosquera's performance-implied value at EUR 5.9M-15.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 7.7M-19.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 7.0M-17.6M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 26
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 76.3th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €12.6M vs market €12.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -13% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2143 (63% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.03
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 76 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1425
- Opponent strength
- 1617
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €7.0M – €17.6M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -15% (IQR -43% to +37%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Premier League | CB | 27 | 2143 | 63% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1617 | 1425 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Premier League | CB | 5 | 442 | 13% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1619 | 1501 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Villarreal CF | Laliga | CB | 16 | 1228 | 36% | 2 | 1 | 0.22 | 0.17 | 1508 | 1577 | 1.00 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Villarreal CF | 2 | 129 | 1 | 0 | 1585 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Felix Uduokhai Bundesliga · 2020 | 23 | €6.8M | €10.0M | rose |
| Kevin Wimmer Premier League · 2018 | 26 | €10.0M | €2.4M | fell |
| Ethan Ampadu Premier League · 2021 | 21 | €15.0M | €9.0M | fell |
| James Tarkowski Premier League · 2018 | 26 | €15.0M | €20.0M | rose |
| Andoni Gorosabel Laliga · 2021 | 25 | €10.0M | €9.0M | flat |
| Yeray Álvarez Laliga · 2019 | 24 | €25.0M | €20.0M | fell |
| Daniel Amartey Premier League · 2022 | 28 | €10.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Jan Bednarek Premier League · 2019 | 23 | €15.0M | €25.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2024 | Villarreal | Wolves | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 23 Jan 2024 | Wolves | Villarreal | Free / loan | €3.5M |
| 31 Dec 2023 | Cincinnati | Wolves | Free / loan | €3.5M |
| 2 Feb 2023 | Wolves | Cincinnati | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Atl. Nacional | Wolves | €5.2M | €1.7M |
| 1 Jan 2020 | Nacional U20 | Atl. Nacional | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.