Nicolás Domínguez

28 yrs · Central midfielder (also DM) · Argentina
Nottingham Forest · Premier League · Foot: right · Height: 179 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
Market value
€15.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€8.7M – €16.6M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€14.6M – €35.2M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€5.4M – €13.8M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€2.0M – €26.4M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€8.7M – €16.6M
Model value (performance-implied)€14.6M – €35.2M
Projected value (24 months)€5.4M – €13.8M
Dashed line: current market value (€15.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Nicolás Domínguez's performance-implied value at EUR 14.6M-35.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 8.7M-16.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 5.4M-13.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.03x the positional average in the league (1177 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 12

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceElite90.9th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable28 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €12.9M vs market €15.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-41% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapLargeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 1.3
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €18.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1177 (34% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.15
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.13
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
91 (Elite)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
1.30 (rank 1)
Team strength (Elo)
1635
Opponent strength
1632
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
stable
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€5.4M – €13.8M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 23 pts; team strength up (+63 Elo); relative output up 72% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -42% (IQR -60% to -5%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠Limited sample: 1177 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Nottingham ForestPremier LeagueDM27117734%110.150.13163216351.30
2024/25Nottingham ForestPremier LeagueDM34197158%010.050.08157115731.23
2023/24Nottingham ForestPremier LeagueCM26150344%220.240.29162014281.14
2023/24Bologna Football Club 1909Serie ACM21023%000.000.27162315790.98
2022/23Bologna Football Club 1909Serie ACM31230867%320.190.23147714820.94
2021/22Bologna Football Club 1909Serie ADM28202559%030.130.14146513950.89
2020/21Bologna Football Club 1909Serie ACM28125637%100.070.14146413800.90
2019/20Bologna Football Club 1909Serie ADM1669620%010.130.12145613650.82

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Europa LeagueNottingham Forest13959101540
2025/26Fa CupNottingham Forest17400—
2024/25Fa CupNottingham Forest425500—
2023/24Fa CupNottingham Forest325510—
2023/24Italy CupBologna Football Club 190919000—
2022/23Italy CupBologna Football Club 1909317700—
2021/22Italy CupBologna Football Club 190917810—
2020/21Italy CupBologna Football Club 1909217200—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Éver Banega
Laliga · 2014
26€12.0M€15.0Mrose
Morgan Schneiderlin
Premier League · 2019
30€15.0M€7.0Mfell
Jack Wilshere
Premier League · 2018
26€20.0M€4.8Mfell
Fred
Premier League · 2023
30€20.0M€10.0Mfell
Jonjo Shelvey
Premier League · 2019
27€15.0M€13.0Mflat
Francis Coquelin
Laliga · 2018
27€12.0M€19.0Mrose
Isaac Hayden
Premier League · 2022
27€8.0M€1.8Mfell
Ander Iturraspe
Laliga · 2016
27€7.5M€5.0Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Sept 2023BolognaNott'm Forest€6.7M€17.0M
8 Jan 2020Vélez SarsfieldBolognaFree / loan€17.5M
31 Aug 2019BolognaVélez SarsfieldFree / loan€12.5M
30 Aug 2019Vélez SarsfieldBologna€11.0M€12.5M
1 Jan 2017Vélez IIVélez SarsfieldUnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.