
Nicolás Domínguez
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Nicolás Domínguez's performance-implied value at EUR 14.6M-35.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 8.7M-16.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 5.4M-13.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.03x the positional average in the league (1177 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 12
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 90.9th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €12.9M vs market €15.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -41% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1177 (34% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.15
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.13
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 91 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1635
- Opponent strength
- 1632
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €5.4M – €13.8M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 23 pts; team strength up (+63 Elo); relative output up 72% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -42% (IQR -60% to -5%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1177 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Nottingham Forest | Premier League | DM | 27 | 1177 | 34% | 1 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.13 | 1632 | 1635 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Nottingham Forest | Premier League | DM | 34 | 1971 | 58% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 1571 | 1573 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Nottingham Forest | Premier League | CM | 26 | 1503 | 44% | 2 | 2 | 0.24 | 0.29 | 1620 | 1428 | 1.14 |
| 2023/24 | Bologna Football Club 1909 | Serie A | CM | 2 | 102 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.27 | 1623 | 1579 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | Bologna Football Club 1909 | Serie A | CM | 31 | 2308 | 67% | 3 | 2 | 0.19 | 0.23 | 1477 | 1482 | 0.94 |
| 2021/22 | Bologna Football Club 1909 | Serie A | DM | 28 | 2025 | 59% | 0 | 3 | 0.13 | 0.14 | 1465 | 1395 | 0.89 |
| 2020/21 | Bologna Football Club 1909 | Serie A | CM | 28 | 1256 | 37% | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.14 | 1464 | 1380 | 0.90 |
| 2019/20 | Bologna Football Club 1909 | Serie A | DM | 16 | 696 | 20% | 0 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.12 | 1456 | 1365 | 0.82 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Nottingham Forest | 13 | 959 | 1 | 0 | 1540 |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Nottingham Forest | 1 | 74 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Nottingham Forest | 4 | 255 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Nottingham Forest | 3 | 255 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | Bologna Football Club 1909 | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Italy Cup | Bologna Football Club 1909 | 3 | 177 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Italy Cup | Bologna Football Club 1909 | 1 | 78 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Italy Cup | Bologna Football Club 1909 | 2 | 172 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Éver Banega Laliga · 2014 | 26 | €12.0M | €15.0M | rose |
| Morgan Schneiderlin Premier League · 2019 | 30 | €15.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Jack Wilshere Premier League · 2018 | 26 | €20.0M | €4.8M | fell |
| Fred Premier League · 2023 | 30 | €20.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Jonjo Shelvey Premier League · 2019 | 27 | €15.0M | €13.0M | flat |
| Francis Coquelin Laliga · 2018 | 27 | €12.0M | €19.0M | rose |
| Isaac Hayden Premier League · 2022 | 27 | €8.0M | €1.8M | fell |
| Ander Iturraspe Laliga · 2016 | 27 | €7.5M | €5.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Sept 2023 | Bologna | Nott'm Forest | €6.7M | €17.0M |
| 8 Jan 2020 | Vélez Sarsfield | Bologna | Free / loan | €17.5M |
| 31 Aug 2019 | Bologna | Vélez Sarsfield | Free / loan | €12.5M |
| 30 Aug 2019 | Vélez Sarsfield | Bologna | €11.0M | €12.5M |
| 1 Jan 2017 | Vélez II | Vélez Sarsfield | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.