Emmanuel Longelo
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Emmanuel Longelo's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.5M-1.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.8M-2.6M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 98
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 28th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €633k vs market €1.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +3% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.31 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2282 (77% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.39
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.28
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 28 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.31 (rank 26)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1245
- Opponent strength
- 1215
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €752k – €2.6M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +5% (IQR -47% to +160%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 11 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 16 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 90%–275%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 75%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Motherwell FC | Scottish Premiership | LB | 31 | 2282 | 77% | 6 | 4 | 0.39 | 0.28 | 1215 | 1245 | 0.31 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Scottish Fa Cup | Motherwell FC | 2 | 53 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jure Balkovec Super Lig · 2021 | 27 | €2.4M | €2.2M | flat |
| Karim Hafez Super Lig · 2021 | 25 | €1.5M | €600k | fell |
| Vasyl Kravets Premier Liga · 2023 | 26 | €1.2M | €700k | fell |
| Derek Cornelius Super League 1 · 2022 | 25 | €800k | €2.8M | rose |
| Ryan Porteous Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 24 | €2.5M | €3.0M | rose |
| Tymur Stetskov Premier Liga · 2024 | 26 | €1.0M | €300k | fell |
| Rick van Drongelen Super Lig · 2024 | 26 | €1.4M | €6.0M | rose |
| Teenage Hadebe Super Lig · 2021 | 26 | €850k | €2.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Jul 2025 | Birmingham | Motherwell FC | €150k | €800k |
| 31 May 2025 | Cambridge Utd. | Birmingham | Free / loan | €800k |
| 22 Aug 2024 | Birmingham | Cambridge Utd. | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 31 Jan 2023 | West Ham U21 | Birmingham | €455k | €800k |
| 30 Jan 2023 | Birmingham | West Ham U21 | Free / loan | €800k |
| 30 Aug 2022 | West Ham U21 | Birmingham | Free / loan | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | West Ham U18 | West Ham U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | West Ham Yth. | West Ham U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.