Rick van Drongelen
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Rick van Drongelen's performance-implied value at EUR 1.0M-3.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.5M-6.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.9M-7.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 41
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 51.2th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €5.1M vs market €6.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -20% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2823 (92% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.13
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.11
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 51 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1310
- Opponent strength
- 1275
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.9M – €7.7M
Trajectory drivers: relative output up 33% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -9% (IQR -29% to +4%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 50 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 68%–191%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 54%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Samsunspor | Super Lig | CB | 32 | 2823 | 92% | 2 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.11 | 1275 | 1310 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Samsunspor | Super Lig | CB | 33 | 2944 | 91% | 3 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.08 | 1284 | 1286 | 0.39 |
| 2023/24 | Samsunspor | Super Lig | CB | 30 | 2396 | 70% | 3 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.12 | 1295 | 1217 | 0.45 |
| 2021/22 | KV Mechelen | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 8 | 481 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1337 | 1320 | 0.49 |
| 2017/18 | Hamburger SV | Bundesliga | CB | 18 | 1443 | 47% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1556 | 1410 | 1.04 |
| 2016/17 | Sparta Rotterdam | Eredivisie | CB | 31 | 2771 | 91% | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 1360 | 1223 | 0.54 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Samsunspor | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1398 |
| 2016/17 | Knvb Beker | Sparta Rotterdam | 3 | 300 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florent Hadergjonaj Super Lig · 2022 | 28 | €4.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Casper Højer Superliga · 2021 | 27 | €2.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Maksim Osipenko Premier Liga · 2022 | 28 | €3.5M | €5.0M | rose |
| Steven Caulker Super Lig · 2021 | 30 | €4.4M | €900k | fell |
| Dimitrios Goutas Super Lig · 2022 | 28 | €3.0M | €2.8M | flat |
| Samuel Gigot Premier Liga · 2022 | 29 | €10.0M | €9.0M | flat |
| Eric Botteghin Eredivisie · 2015 | 28 | €3.0M | €7.5M | rose |
| Jure Balkovec Super Lig · 2021 | 27 | €2.4M | €2.2M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Jul 2023 | Union Berlin | Samsunspor | €200k | €1.0M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Hansa Rostock | Union Berlin | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 1 Sept 2022 | Union Berlin | Hansa Rostock | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | KV Mechelen | Union Berlin | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 31 Jan 2022 | Union Berlin | KV Mechelen | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Hamburg | Union Berlin | €500k | €2.5M |
| 3 Aug 2017 | Sparta R. | Hamburg | €3.0M | €900k |
| 1 Jan 2016 | Sparta U21 | Sparta R. | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Sparta R. U17 | Sparta U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Sparta Youth | Sparta R. U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | JVOZ Youth | Sparta Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.