Mike Vestergård
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Mike Vestergård's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-0.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.88x the positional average in the league (1792 minutes, league coefficient 0.47). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 92
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 0.8th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €181k vs market €350k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -13% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.47 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1792 (91% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.05
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.11
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 1 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.47 (rank 12)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1098
- Opponent strength
- 1279
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €234k – €380k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -38% (IQR -43% to -4%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1792 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.47 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 23 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 68%–122%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 65%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Vejle Boldklub | Superliga | DM | 21 | 1792 | 91% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 1279 | 1098 | 0.47 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Oddset Pokalen | Vejle Boldklub | 4 | 297 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Oddset Pokalen | Kolding IF | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ruslan Babenko Premier Liga · 2021 | 29 | €400k | €800k | rose |
| Pedro Silva Torrejón Super League 1 · 2024 | 27 | €500k | €1.2M | rose |
| Oleksandr Vasyliev Premier Liga · 2023 | 29 | €400k | €200k | fell |
| Artem Gabelok Premier Liga · 2023 | 28 | €500k | €300k | fell |
| Yevgen Zaporozhets Premier Liga · 2022 | 28 | €400k | €250k | fell |
| Stefanos Siontis Super League 1 · 2018 | 31 | €400k | €250k | fell |
| Hallur Hansson Superliga · 2021 | 29 | €400k | €300k | fell |
| Alexandru Tudose Premier Liga · 2015 | 28 | €500k | €150k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Jul 2025 | Sarpsborg 08 | Vejle BK | Unknown | €250k |
| 7 Feb 2025 | Kolding IF | Sarpsborg 08 | Unknown | €300k |
| 21 Jan 2020 | Aarhus Fremad | Kolding IF | Free / loan | €25k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Lystrup IF | Aarhus Fremad | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.