Marquinhos
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Marquinhos's performance-implied value at EUR 1.9M-8.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.9M-7.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.1M-8.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.06x the positional average in the league (1834 minutes, league coefficient 0.56). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 46
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 55.9th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €5.5M vs market €7.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -24% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1834 (68% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.54
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.43
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 56 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1443
- Opponent strength
- 1331
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.1M – €8.2M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -16% (IQR -33% to +60%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 20 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 76%–104%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 50%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FK Spartak Moskva | Premier Liga | LW | 26 | 1834 | 68% | 5 | 6 | 0.54 | 0.43 | 1331 | 1443 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | FK Spartak Moskva | Premier Liga | LW | 26 | 1848 | 68% | 0 | 10 | 0.49 | 0.38 | 1299 | 1470 | 0.55 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | FK Spartak Moskva | 7 | 431 | 3 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | FK Spartak Moskva | 9 | 639 | 1 | 2 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Ferencvárosi TC | 1 | 76 | 1 | 1 | 1235 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefano Okaka Jupiler Pro League · 2016 | 27 | €6.5M | €5.0M | fell |
| Aleksandr Sobolev Premier Liga · 2023 | 26 | €9.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Benjamin Verbic Premier Liga · 2019 | 26 | €6.0M | €5.5M | flat |
| Jelle Vossen Jupiler Pro League · 2013 | 24 | €7.5M | €5.0M | fell |
| Ricardo Horta Liga Portugal · 2020 | 26 | €8.0M | €20.0M | rose |
| Ezequiel Ponce Premier Liga · 2021 | 24 | €7.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Mateo Cassierra Premier Liga · 2022 | 25 | €4.5M | €11.0M | rose |
| Dries Mertens Eredivisie · 2013 | 26 | €13.0M | €18.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Aug 2024 | Ferencváros | Spartak Moscow | €5.0M | €4.0M |
| 14 Feb 2022 | Atlético-MG | Ferencváros | €1.6M | €3.8M |
| 11 Feb 2022 | Botev Plovdiv | Atlético-MG | Free / loan | €3.8M |
| 14 Feb 2021 | Atlético-MG | Botev Plovdiv | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 31 Dec 2018 | Chapecoense | Atlético-MG | Free / loan | €50k |
| 1 Sept 2018 | Atlético-MG | Chapecoense | Free / loan | €50k |
| 2 Mar 2018 | Atlético-MG U20 | Atlético-MG | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.