Jamie Leweling

25 yrs · Right winger (also LW, SS) · Germany
VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga · Foot: both · Height: 185 cm
Risk: LowConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: ModerateContract: until 30 Jun 2029
Market value
€40.0M
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€31.1M – €54.2M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€11.6M – €36.5M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€20.1M – €54.0M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€42.6M – €5.5M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€31.1M – €54.2M
Model value (performance-implied)€11.6M – €36.5M
Projected value (24 months)€20.1M – €54.0M
Dashed line: current market value (€40.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Jamie Leweling's performance-implied value at EUR 11.6M-36.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 31.1M-54.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 20.1M-54.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.01x the positional average in the league (2379 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 26

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceHigh84.4th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral25.3 years
Acquisition costNeutralest. €40.8M vs market €40.0M
Expected appreciationLow-16% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery negativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentModerate
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.94
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskLow
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €40.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2379 (78% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.60
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.41
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
84 (High)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.94 (rank 3)
Team strength (Elo)
1567
Opponent strength
1493
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Moderate
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€20.1M – €54.0M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 23 pts; role change RW -> LW; relative output up 71% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -43% (IQR -52% to -17%).

Risk profile

Overall: Low

  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26VfB StuttgartBundesligaLW32237978%790.610.41149315670.94
2024/25VfB StuttgartBundesligaRW27167755%230.270.25150915310.94
2023/24VfB StuttgartBundesligaRW34152350%470.650.51154016371.01
2022/231.FC Union BerlinBundesligaRW162488%110.730.39156615871.04
2021/22SpVgg Greuther FürthBundesligaSS33195864%520.320.75154412501.05

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Europa LeagueVfB Stuttgart11644311473
2025/26Dfb PokalVfB Stuttgart533402—
2025/26Franz Beckenbauer SupercupVfB Stuttgart190101760
2025/26World CupGermany13000—
2024/25Uefa Champions LeagueVfB Stuttgart5412211668
2024/25Dfb PokalVfB Stuttgart413810—
2024/25Franz Beckenbauer SupercupVfB Stuttgart163001761
2023/24Dfb PokalVfB Stuttgart412400—
2022/23Uefa Europa League1.FC Union Berlin759001534
2022/23Dfb Pokal1.FC Union Berlin22100—
2021/22Dfb PokalSpVgg Greuther Fürth16801—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Mario Balotelli
Serie A · 2014
24€30.0M€7.0Mfell
Yussuf Poulsen
Bundesliga · 2019
25€35.0M€21.0Mfell
Gonzalo Higuaín
Serie A · 2014
27€38.0M€60.0Mrose
Mattia Zaccagni
Serie A · 2023
28€30.0M€20.0Mfell
Dušan Vlahović
Serie A · 2024
24€65.0M€35.0Mfell
Moussa Dembélé
Ligue 1 · 2020
24€40.0M€20.0Mfell
Omar Marmoush
Bundesliga · 2024
25€22.0M€50.0Mrose
Chris Führich
Bundesliga · 2024
26€28.0M€12.0Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2024Union BerlinStuttgart€6.0M€9.0M
30 Jun 2024StuttgartUnion BerlinFree / loan€9.0M
13 Jul 2023Union BerlinStuttgartFree / loan€3.0M
1 Jul 2022Greuther FürthUnion Berlin€4.0M€4.5M
18 Sept 2019Gr. Fürth U19Greuther FürthUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2018Gr. Fürth U17Gr. Fürth U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2017Nürnberg Yth.Gr. Fürth U17Free / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2012SC Feucht Yth.Nürnberg Yth.Free / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2010Schnaitt. Jgd.SC Feucht Yth.Free / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.