
Jamie Leweling
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Jamie Leweling's performance-implied value at EUR 11.6M-36.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 31.1M-54.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 20.1M-54.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.01x the positional average in the league (2379 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 26
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 84.4th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €40.8M vs market €40.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -16% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2379 (78% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.60
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.41
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 84 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1567
- Opponent strength
- 1493
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €20.1M – €54.0M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 23 pts; role change RW -> LW; relative output up 71% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -43% (IQR -52% to -17%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga | LW | 32 | 2379 | 78% | 7 | 9 | 0.61 | 0.41 | 1493 | 1567 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga | RW | 27 | 1677 | 55% | 2 | 3 | 0.27 | 0.25 | 1509 | 1531 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga | RW | 34 | 1523 | 50% | 4 | 7 | 0.65 | 0.51 | 1540 | 1637 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | 1.FC Union Berlin | Bundesliga | RW | 16 | 248 | 8% | 1 | 1 | 0.73 | 0.39 | 1566 | 1587 | 1.04 |
| 2021/22 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Bundesliga | SS | 33 | 1958 | 64% | 5 | 2 | 0.32 | 0.75 | 1544 | 1250 | 1.05 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | VfB Stuttgart | 11 | 644 | 3 | 1 | 1473 |
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | VfB Stuttgart | 5 | 334 | 0 | 2 | — |
| 2025/26 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | VfB Stuttgart | 1 | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1760 |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Germany | 1 | 30 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | VfB Stuttgart | 5 | 412 | 2 | 1 | 1668 |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | VfB Stuttgart | 4 | 138 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | VfB Stuttgart | 1 | 63 | 0 | 0 | 1761 |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | VfB Stuttgart | 4 | 124 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | 1.FC Union Berlin | 7 | 59 | 0 | 0 | 1534 |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FC Union Berlin | 2 | 21 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Dfb Pokal | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 1 | 68 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Balotelli Serie A · 2014 | 24 | €30.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Yussuf Poulsen Bundesliga · 2019 | 25 | €35.0M | €21.0M | fell |
| Gonzalo Higuaín Serie A · 2014 | 27 | €38.0M | €60.0M | rose |
| Mattia Zaccagni Serie A · 2023 | 28 | €30.0M | €20.0M | fell |
| Dušan Vlahović Serie A · 2024 | 24 | €65.0M | €35.0M | fell |
| Moussa Dembélé Ligue 1 · 2020 | 24 | €40.0M | €20.0M | fell |
| Omar Marmoush Bundesliga · 2024 | 25 | €22.0M | €50.0M | rose |
| Chris Führich Bundesliga · 2024 | 26 | €28.0M | €12.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | Union Berlin | Stuttgart | €6.0M | €9.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Stuttgart | Union Berlin | Free / loan | €9.0M |
| 13 Jul 2023 | Union Berlin | Stuttgart | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Greuther Fürth | Union Berlin | €4.0M | €4.5M |
| 18 Sept 2019 | Gr. Fürth U19 | Greuther Fürth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Gr. Fürth U17 | Gr. Fürth U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Nürnberg Yth. | Gr. Fürth U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | SC Feucht Yth. | Nürnberg Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Schnaitt. Jgd. | SC Feucht Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.