Fali Candé

28 yrs · Centre-back (also LB, LM) · Guinea-Bissau
US Sassuolo · Serie A · Foot: left · Height: 184 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: LowSample: LowDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2029
Market value
€3.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€1.1M – €3.2M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€994k – €2.4M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€1.1M – €3.1M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€2.2M – €1.2M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€1.1M – €3.2M
Model value (performance-implied)€994k – €2.4M
Projected value (24 months)€1.1M – €3.1M
Dashed line: current market value (€3.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Fali Candé's performance-implied value at EUR 1.0M-2.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.1M-3.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.1M-3.1M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)

PerformanceAverage45.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable28.4 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €1.9M vs market €3.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-38% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapNegativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.93
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceLow

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €3.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1269 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
507 (15% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.00
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.13
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
45 (Average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.93 (rank 4)
Team strength (Elo)
1406
Opponent strength
1514
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
declining
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€1.1M – €3.1M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 30 pts; changed club; team strength up (+113 Elo); role change CB -> LB; relative output down 62% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -33% (IQR -41% to -15%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ▲Small sample: 507 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26US SassuoloSerie ALB1250715%000.000.13151414050.93
2024/25Venezia FCSerie ACB17153045%110.120.17150012930.99
2023/24FC MetzLigue 1CB25184660%020.100.13147412840.87
2021/22Portimonense SCLiga PortugalLB16131543%130.270.25138812880.67
2021/22FC MetzLigue 1LM1197529%020.180.31144613080.86
2020/21Portimonense SCLiga PortugalLB22136144%200.130.16137512790.61
2019/20Portimonense SCLiga PortugalLB962320%000.000.09137312650.59

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Italy CupUS Sassuolo19000—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Giangiacomo Magnani
Serie A · 2022
27€3.6M€3.0Mflat
Kaan Ayhan
Serie A · 2023
29€3.7M€4.0Mflat
Nacho Vidal
Laliga · 2024
29€2.0M€1.2Mfell
Junior Sambia
Serie A · 2023
27€3.5M€2.0Mfell
Igor Silva
Ligue 1 · 2023
27€1.5M€1.0Mfell
Armando Izzo
Serie A · 2022
30€2.8M€2.5Mflat
Molla Wagué
Serie A · 2017
26€1.5M€1.0Mfell
Cheikh M'Bengue
Ligue 1 · 2018
30€2.0M€400kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
10 Aug 2025VeneziaSassuolo€4.5M€2.5M
1 Jul 2025FC MetzVenezia€1.9M€2.5M
30 Jun 2025VeneziaFC MetzFree / loan€2.5M
22 Jan 2025FC MetzVeneziaFree / loan€1.5M
26 Jan 2022PortimonenseFC Metz€2.5M€1.0M
1 Jul 2020Portimonense 23PortimonenseUnknown€25k
1 Jul 2018Benfica BPortimonense 23Unknown€25k
30 Jun 2018Casa PiaBenfica BFree / loan€25k
1 Sept 2017Benfica BCasa PiaFree / loanData unavailable
10 Jul 2017FC Porto U19Benfica BUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2016Niendorf U19FC Porto U19Free / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2015Casa Pia U17Niendorf U19Free / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2013Casa Pia U15Casa Pia U17UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2012Atlético CP U15Casa Pia U15UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2011Estrela A. FAtlético CP U15Free / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Fali Candé · MoneyballAI