
Fali Candé
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Fali Candé's performance-implied value at EUR 1.0M-2.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.1M-3.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.1M-3.1M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Average | 45.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.9M vs market €3.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -38% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1269 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 507 (15% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.13
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 45 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1406
- Opponent strength
- 1514
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.1M – €3.1M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 30 pts; changed club; team strength up (+113 Elo); role change CB -> LB; relative output down 62% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -33% (IQR -41% to -15%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Small sample: 507 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | US Sassuolo | Serie A | LB | 12 | 507 | 15% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 1514 | 1405 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Venezia FC | Serie A | CB | 17 | 1530 | 45% | 1 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.17 | 1500 | 1293 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | FC Metz | Ligue 1 | CB | 25 | 1846 | 60% | 0 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.13 | 1474 | 1284 | 0.87 |
| 2021/22 | Portimonense SC | Liga Portugal | LB | 16 | 1315 | 43% | 1 | 3 | 0.27 | 0.25 | 1388 | 1288 | 0.67 |
| 2021/22 | FC Metz | Ligue 1 | LM | 11 | 975 | 29% | 0 | 2 | 0.18 | 0.31 | 1446 | 1308 | 0.86 |
| 2020/21 | Portimonense SC | Liga Portugal | LB | 22 | 1361 | 44% | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.16 | 1375 | 1279 | 0.61 |
| 2019/20 | Portimonense SC | Liga Portugal | LB | 9 | 623 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 1373 | 1265 | 0.59 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | US Sassuolo | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giangiacomo Magnani Serie A · 2022 | 27 | €3.6M | €3.0M | flat |
| Kaan Ayhan Serie A · 2023 | 29 | €3.7M | €4.0M | flat |
| Nacho Vidal Laliga · 2024 | 29 | €2.0M | €1.2M | fell |
| Junior Sambia Serie A · 2023 | 27 | €3.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Igor Silva Ligue 1 · 2023 | 27 | €1.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Armando Izzo Serie A · 2022 | 30 | €2.8M | €2.5M | flat |
| Molla Wagué Serie A · 2017 | 26 | €1.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Cheikh M'Bengue Ligue 1 · 2018 | 30 | €2.0M | €400k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Aug 2025 | Venezia | Sassuolo | €4.5M | €2.5M |
| 1 Jul 2025 | FC Metz | Venezia | €1.9M | €2.5M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Venezia | FC Metz | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 22 Jan 2025 | FC Metz | Venezia | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 26 Jan 2022 | Portimonense | FC Metz | €2.5M | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Portimonense 23 | Portimonense | Unknown | €25k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Benfica B | Portimonense 23 | Unknown | €25k |
| 30 Jun 2018 | Casa Pia | Benfica B | Free / loan | €25k |
| 1 Sept 2017 | Benfica B | Casa Pia | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 10 Jul 2017 | FC Porto U19 | Benfica B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Niendorf U19 | FC Porto U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Casa Pia U17 | Niendorf U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Casa Pia U15 | Casa Pia U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Atlético CP U15 | Casa Pia U15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Estrela A. F | Atlético CP U15 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.