Ousseynou Ba
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ousseynou Ba's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-1.1M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-0.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.9M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 61
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 28.8th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €378k vs market €1.2M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -45% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1089 (36% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.04
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 29 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1357
- Opponent strength
- 1290
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €339k – €930k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 15 pts; team strength up (+71 Elo); relative output up 58% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -44% (IQR -56% to -25%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1089 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 50 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 68%–191%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 54%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Basaksehir FK | Super Lig | CB | 17 | 1089 | 36% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1290 | 1357 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Basaksehir FK | Super Lig | CB | 21 | 1649 | 51% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1280 | 1286 | 0.39 |
| 2023/24 | Basaksehir FK | Super Lig | CB | 22 | 1765 | 52% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 1315 | 1397 | 0.45 |
| 2022/23 | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | Super League 1 | CB | 12 | 859 | 37% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1250 | 1446 | 0.37 |
| 2021/22 | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | Super League 1 | CB | 15 | 956 | 41% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1208 | 1499 | 0.39 |
| 2020/21 | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | Super League 1 | CB | 16 | 1228 | 52% | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.04 | 1261 | 1531 | 0.39 |
| 2019/20 | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | Super League 1 | CB | 14 | 1237 | 53% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1273 | 1591 | 0.46 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Basaksehir FK | 6 | 516 | 0 | 0 | 1349 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Basaksehir FK | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1181 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 3 | 275 | 0 | 0 | 1410 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1598 |
| 2022/23 | Kypello Elladas | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 3 | 266 | 0 | 0 | 1415 |
| 2021/22 | Kypello Elladas | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 3 | 248 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 4 | 202 | 0 | 0 | 1478 |
| 2020/21 | Kypello Elladas | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 4 | 317 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 3 | 262 | 0 | 0 | 1615 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 3 | 189 | 0 | 0 | 1675 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1441 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 4 | 390 | 0 | 0 | 1667 |
| 2019/20 | Kypello Elladas | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 1 | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1534 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samba Camara Super Lig · 2022 | 30 | €1.0M | €400k | fell |
| Sergio Sánchez Super League 1 · 2016 | 30 | €1.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Stelios Malezas Super League 1 · 2016 | 31 | €800k | €600k | fell |
| Ousmane Coulibaly Super League 1 · 2018 | 29 | €1.0M | €475k | fell |
| Georgiy Shchennikov Premier Liga · 2022 | 31 | €1.5M | €300k | fell |
| Zanka Superliga · 2021 | 31 | €1.5M | €1.5M | flat |
| Ömer Ali Şahiner Super Lig · 2022 | 30 | €1.0M | €450k | fell |
| Nikita Chernov Premier Liga · 2024 | 28 | €2.0M | €1.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Jul 2024 | Olympiacos | Basaksehir | €1.0M | €2.6M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Basaksehir | Olympiacos | Free / loan | €2.6M |
| 29 Aug 2023 | Olympiacos | Basaksehir | Free / loan | €3.5M |
| 30 Jun 2019 | G. Ajaccio | Olympiacos | Free / loan | €500k |
| 2 Jan 2019 | Olympiacos | G. Ajaccio | Free / loan | €300k |
| 1 Jan 2019 | G. Ajaccio | Olympiacos | €500k | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | CNEPS Excel. | G. Ajaccio | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.