Taty Castellanos
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Taty Castellanos's performance-implied value at EUR 6.5M-19.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 20.1M-40.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 12.1M-26.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.00x the positional average in the league (2090 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 2
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 76.3th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €28.1M vs market €28.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -47% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2090 (61% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.47
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.54
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 76 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1521
- Opponent strength
- 1606
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €12.1M – €26.8M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength down (-86 Elo); league level up (+67 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -55% (IQR -63% to -46%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | West Ham United | Premier League | ST | 18 | 1396 | 41% | 6 | 0 | 0.39 | 0.54 | 1606 | 1520 | 1.30 |
| 2025/26 | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | Serie A | ST | 11 | 694 | 20% | 2 | 3 | 0.65 | 0.44 | 1430 | 1522 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | Serie A | ST | 29 | 2395 | 70% | 10 | 5 | 0.56 | 0.43 | 1473 | 1606 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | Serie A | ST | 35 | 1677 | 49% | 4 | 3 | 0.38 | 0.40 | 1486 | 1580 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | Girona FC | Laliga | ST | 35 | 2620 | 77% | 13 | 1 | 0.48 | 0.61 | 1510 | 1458 | 0.98 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | West Ham United | 4 | 314 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 1 | 58 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 11 | 685 | 4 | 3 | 1554 |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 4 | 241 | 2 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 7 | 213 | 0 | 1 | 1657 |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | Girona FC | 2 | 148 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willian José Laliga · 2020 | 29 | €24.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Rodrigo Laliga · 2020 | 29 | €40.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Saïd Benrahma Premier League · 2023 | 28 | €25.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Neal Maupay Premier League · 2022 | 26 | €18.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Portu Laliga · 2021 | 29 | €20.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Ihlas Bebou Bundesliga · 2021 | 27 | €16.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Chicharito Bundesliga · 2017 | 29 | €18.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Demba Ba Premier League · 2013 | 28 | €22.0M | €10.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Jan 2026 | Lazio | West Ham | €29.0M | €25.0M |
| 21 Jul 2023 | New York City | Lazio | €18.6M | €15.0M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Girona | New York City | Free / loan | €15.0M |
| 25 Jul 2022 | New York City | Girona | Free / loan | €12.0M |
| 1 Jan 2019 | CA Torque | New York City | €425k | €400k |
| 31 Dec 2018 | New York City | CA Torque | Free / loan | €400k |
| 27 Jul 2018 | CA Torque | New York City | Free / loan | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | U. de Chile | CA Torque | €150k | €200k |
| 30 Jun 2018 | CA Torque | U. de Chile | Free / loan | €200k |
| 18 Jul 2017 | U. de Chile | CA Torque | Free / loan | €75k |
| 1 Jan 2017 | U. de Chile U21 | U. de Chile | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.