
Modibo Sagnan
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Modibo Sagnan's performance-implied value at EUR 0.8M-1.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.7M-1.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.7M-2.2M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 71
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 37.8th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.2M vs market €2.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -27% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1499 (49% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.12
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.11
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 38 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1229
- Opponent strength
- 1236
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €728k – €2.2M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 20 pts; changed club; league level down (-197 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -37% (IQR -53% to -22%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1499 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 50 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 68%–191%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 54%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Caykur Rizespor | Super Lig | CB | 20 | 1499 | 49% | 1 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.11 | 1236 | 1229 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Montpellier HSC | Ligue 1 | CB | 27 | 2117 | 69% | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.10 | 1440 | 1236 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | Montpellier HSC | Ligue 1 | CB | 13 | 1057 | 35% | 2 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.13 | 1440 | 1434 | 0.87 |
| 2023/24 | FC Utrecht | Eredivisie | CB | 13 | 873 | 29% | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.09 | 1385 | 1354 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | FC Utrecht | Eredivisie | CB | 23 | 1812 | 59% | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 1348 | 1392 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | CD Tondela | Liga Portugal | CB | 27 | 2254 | 74% | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.12 | 1369 | 1230 | 0.67 |
| 2020/21 | Real Sociedad | Laliga | CB | 16 | 619 | 18% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1536 | 1573 | 1.10 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023/24 | Knvb Beker | FC Utrecht | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Knvb Beker | FC Utrecht | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | Real Sociedad | 4 | 282 | 0 | 0 | 1627 |
| 2020/21 | Copa Del Rey | Real Sociedad | 1 | 78 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Copa Del Rey | Real Sociedad | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Konstantinos Laifis Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 29 | €2.2M | €1.5M | fell |
| Oussama Haddadi Super Lig · 2020 | 28 | €2.4M | €800k | fell |
| Jure Balkovec Super Lig · 2022 | 28 | €2.3M | €1.2M | fell |
| Alpaslan Öztürk Super Lig · 2021 | 28 | €2.2M | €550k | fell |
| Ousmane Coulibaly Super League 1 · 2015 | 26 | €1.3M | €1.0M | fell |
| Casper Højer Super Lig · 2024 | 30 | €1.7M | €1.0M | fell |
| Derek Cornelius Super League 1 · 2023 | 26 | €1.2M | €5.0M | rose |
| Ibrahim Dresevic Super Lig · 2024 | 27 | €1.8M | €1.4M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | C. Rizespor | Montpellier | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 2 Aug 2025 | Montpellier | C. Rizespor | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 1 Feb 2024 | Utrecht | Montpellier | €3.2M | €2.5M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Real Sociedad | Utrecht | €1.0M | €3.0M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Utrecht | Real Sociedad | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 11 Jul 2022 | Real Sociedad | Utrecht | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Tondela | Real Sociedad | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 31 Aug 2021 | Real Sociedad | Tondela | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 21 Jul 2020 | CD Mirandés | Real Sociedad | Free / loan | €2.7M |
| 31 Jan 2020 | Real Sociedad | CD Mirandés | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Lens | Real Sociedad | €4.5M | €3.0M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | RC Lens B | Lens | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.