Modibo Sagnan

27 yrs · Centre-back · Mali
Caykur Rizespor · Super Lig · Foot: left · Height: 187 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
Market value
€2.0M
Updated today
Estimated acquisition
€673k – €1.8M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€792k – €1.5M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€728k – €2.2M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€960k – €834k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€673k – €1.8M
Model value (performance-implied)€792k – €1.5M
Projected value (24 months)€728k – €2.2M
Dashed line: current market value (€2.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Modibo Sagnan's performance-implied value at EUR 0.8M-1.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.7M-1.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.7M-2.2M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 71

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAverage37.8th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral27.2 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €1.2M vs market €2.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-27% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapNegativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.4
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €4.5M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1499 (49% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.12
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.11
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
38 (Average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.40 (rank 18)
Team strength (Elo)
1229
Opponent strength
1236
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
declining
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€728k – €2.2M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 20 pts; changed club; league level down (-197 Elo).

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -37% (IQR -53% to -22%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ⚠Limited sample: 1499 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
50 (DEF)
Relative output kept
68%–191%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
54%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Caykur RizesporSuper LigCB20149949%110.120.11123612290.40
2024/25Montpellier HSCLigue 1CB27211769%200.090.10144012360.88
2023/24Montpellier HSCLigue 1CB13105735%200.170.13144014340.87
2023/24FC UtrechtEredivisieCB1387329%100.100.09138513540.48
2022/23FC UtrechtEredivisieCB23181259%100.050.05134813920.58
2021/22CD TondelaLiga PortugalCB27225474%110.080.12136912300.67
2020/21Real SociedadLaligaCB1661918%000.000.04153615731.10

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2023/24Knvb BekerFC Utrecht19000—
2022/23Knvb BekerFC Utrecht327000—
2020/21Uefa Europa LeagueReal Sociedad4282001627
2020/21Copa Del ReyReal Sociedad17800—
2019/20Copa Del ReyReal Sociedad19000—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Konstantinos Laifis
Jupiler Pro League · 2022
29€2.2M€1.5Mfell
Oussama Haddadi
Super Lig · 2020
28€2.4M€800kfell
Jure Balkovec
Super Lig · 2022
28€2.3M€1.2Mfell
Alpaslan Öztürk
Super Lig · 2021
28€2.2M€550kfell
Ousmane Coulibaly
Super League 1 · 2015
26€1.3M€1.0Mfell
Casper Højer
Super Lig · 2024
30€1.7M€1.0Mfell
Derek Cornelius
Super League 1 · 2023
26€1.2M€5.0Mrose
Ibrahim Dresevic
Super Lig · 2024
27€1.8M€1.4Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
30 Jun 2026C. RizesporMontpellierFree / loan€2.0M
2 Aug 2025MontpellierC. RizesporFree / loan€3.0M
1 Feb 2024UtrechtMontpellier€3.2M€2.5M
1 Jul 2023Real SociedadUtrecht€1.0M€3.0M
30 Jun 2023UtrechtReal SociedadFree / loan€3.0M
11 Jul 2022Real SociedadUtrechtFree / loan€3.0M
30 Jun 2022TondelaReal SociedadFree / loan€3.0M
31 Aug 2021Real SociedadTondelaFree / loan€3.0M
21 Jul 2020CD MirandésReal SociedadFree / loan€2.7M
31 Jan 2020Real SociedadCD MirandésFree / loan€3.0M
1 Jul 2019LensReal Sociedad€4.5M€3.0M
1 Jul 2018RC Lens BLensUnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.