Maximilian Kilman
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Maximilian Kilman's performance-implied value at EUR 10.4M-32.1M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 6.9M-15.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.2M-7.8M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 4
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 89.5th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €10.7M vs market €13.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -54% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1558 (46% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.03
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 90 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1520
- Opponent strength
- 1586
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.2M – €7.8M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 52 pts; relative output down 56% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -48% (IQR -56% to -38%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1558 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | West Ham United | Premier League | CB | 21 | 1558 | 46% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1586 | 1520 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | West Ham United | Premier League | CB | 38 | 3349 | 98% | 0 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.07 | 1573 | 1520 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Premier League | CB | 38 | 3420 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 1580 | 1467 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Premier League | CB | 37 | 3308 | 97% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1567 | 1497 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Premier League | CB | 30 | 2689 | 79% | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 1572 | 1508 | 1.17 |
| 2020/21 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Premier League | CB | 18 | 1307 | 38% | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 1540 | 1516 | 1.19 |
| 2019/20 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Premier League | CB | 3 | 184 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1747 | 1613 | 1.14 |
| 2018/19 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Premier League | CB | 1 | 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1346 | 1551 | 1.22 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | West Ham United | 3 | 360 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | West Ham United | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 5 | 480 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2021/22 | Fa Cup | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Fa Cup | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2 | 180 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | 1443 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1302 |
| 2019/20 | Fa Cup | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jannik Vestergaard Premier League · 2019 | 27 | €20.0M | €18.0M | flat |
| Aaron Cresswell Premier League · 2019 | 30 | €10.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Ryan Shawcross Premier League · 2016 | 29 | €11.0M | €10.0M | flat |
| Aderllan Santos Laliga · 2016 | 27 | €7.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Ryan Bertrand Premier League · 2019 | 30 | €15.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Mikel González Laliga · 2014 | 29 | €5.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Winston Reid Premier League · 2018 | 30 | €7.0M | €3.2M | fell |
| Nélson Semedo Premier League · 2022 | 29 | €22.0M | €12.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Jul 2024 | Wolves | West Ham | €47.5M | €32.0M |
| 9 Aug 2018 | Maidenhead Utd. | Wolves | €4.8M | Data unavailable |
| 1 May 2017 | Marlow | Maidenhead Utd. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Aug 2016 | Maidenhead Utd. | Marlow | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Maidenhead U18 | Maidenhead Utd. | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Welling Utd. | Maidenhead U18 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.