Fisayo Dele-Bashiru
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Fisayo Dele-Bashiru's performance-implied value at EUR 2.8M-12.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.3M-7.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.7M-8.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.56x the positional average in the league (1182 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 40
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 64.3th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €5.3M vs market €6.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -18% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1182 (35% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.08
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.12
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 64 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1522
- Opponent strength
- 1505
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.7M – €8.3M
Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-84 Elo); relative output down 52% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -29% (IQR -52% to -10%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1182 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | Serie A | CM | 24 | 1182 | 35% | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.12 | 1505 | 1522 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | Serie A | CM | 20 | 943 | 28% | 3 | 1 | 0.38 | 0.25 | 1521 | 1606 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | Hatayspor | Super Lig | AM | 36 | 3043 | 89% | 8 | 5 | 0.38 | 0.56 | 1314 | 1163 | 0.45 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 4 | 255 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2025/26 | Africa Cup Of Nations | Nigeria | 6 | 244 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 8 | 497 | 2 | 2 | 1514 |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 1 | 73 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odil Akhmedov Premier Liga · 2013 | 26 | €6.0M | €8.5M | rose |
| Matías Fernández Serie A · 2013 | 27 | €5.0M | €9.0M | rose |
| Matheus Henrique Serie A · 2022 | 25 | €11.0M | €8.5M | fell |
| Oier Zarraga Laliga · 2023 | 24 | €3.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Valentino Lazaro Bundesliga · 2021 | 25 | €10.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Christian Träsch Bundesliga · 2013 | 26 | €4.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Mohamed Fares Serie A · 2021 | 25 | €5.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Luca Pellegrini Bundesliga · 2023 | 24 | €7.0M | €3.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Hatayspor | Lazio | €3.4M | €7.5M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Lazio | Hatayspor | Free / loan | €7.5M |
| 6 Jul 2024 | Hatayspor | Lazio | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 11 Jul 2023 | Sheff Wed | Hatayspor | Free / loan | €300k |
| 28 Jul 2020 | Man City U23 | Sheff Wed | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Man City U18 | Man City U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Man City Youth | Man City U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.