Marc Aguado
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Marc Aguado's performance-implied value at EUR 2.0M-6.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.3M-3.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.2M-5.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.07x the positional average in the league (2514 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 97
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 57.1th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.8M vs market €3.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +2% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2514 (74% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.11
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.13
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 57 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1389
- Opponent strength
- 1489
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.2M – €5.6M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +3% (IQR -35% to +37%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Elche CF | Laliga | DM | 35 | 2514 | 74% | 1 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.13 | 1489 | 1389 | 0.95 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Elche CF | 4 | 126 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aatif Chahechouhe Super Lig · 2013 | 27 | €2.5M | €5.0M | rose |
| Marcelo Estigarribia Serie A · 2013 | 26 | €2.5M | €1.7M | fell |
| Santi Comesaña Laliga · 2023 | 27 | €7.5M | €8.0M | flat |
| Elvis Rexhbecaj Bundesliga · 2024 | 27 | €3.5M | €3.5M | flat |
| Thomas Mangani Ligue 1 · 2013 | 26 | €1.8M | €1.0M | fell |
| Carlos Sánchez Ligue 1 · 2013 | 27 | €3.0M | €5.0M | rose |
| Lennard Maloney Bundesliga · 2024 | 25 | €5.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Marcel Risse Bundesliga · 2015 | 26 | €3.5M | €4.5M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Feb 2025 | Real Zaragoza | Elche CF | Free / loan | €1.4M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | FC Andorra | Real Zaragoza | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Real Zaragoza | FC Andorra | Free / loan | €300k |
| 30 Jun 2022 | FC Andorra | Real Zaragoza | Free / loan | €300k |
| 11 Aug 2020 | Real Zaragoza | FC Andorra | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Aug 2020 | Dep. Aragón | Real Zaragoza | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Zaragoza U19 | Dep. Aragón | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Zaragoza Youth | Zaragoza U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.