João Goulart
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates João Goulart's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-1.1M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.5M-1.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.7M-1.9M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 92
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 29.6th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €641k vs market €1.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -16% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1914 (63% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.05
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.07
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 30 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1225
- Opponent strength
- 1339
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €709k – €1.9M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 30 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -42% (IQR -65% to -22%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 66 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 57%–168%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 76%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Casa Pia AC | Liga Portugal | CB | 25 | 1914 | 63% | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.07 | 1339 | 1225 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | Casa Pia AC | Liga Portugal | CB | 33 | 2842 | 93% | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.07 | 1345 | 1276 | 0.51 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikhail Merkulov Premier Liga · 2020 | 26 | €1.2M | €400k | fell |
| Alessandro Ciranni Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 26 | €1.0M | €650k | fell |
| Paulinho Liga Portugal · 2017 | 26 | €1.3M | €750k | fell |
| Rui Correia Liga Portugal · 2017 | 27 | €800k | €200k | fell |
| Pedro Álvaro Liga Portugal · 2024 | 24 | €1.5M | €2.0M | rose |
| Rochdi Achenteh Eredivisie · 2014 | 26 | €900k | €500k | fell |
| Godfrey Oboabona Super Lig · 2017 | 27 | €1.8M | €650k | fell |
| Glenn Bijl Premier Liga · 2022 | 27 | €1.0M | €2.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Jul 2024 | Mafra | Casa Pia | Free / loan | €500k |
| 28 Jan 2022 | Sporting B | Mafra | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Sporting CP U23 | Sporting B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Sporting U19 | Sporting CP U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Sporting U17 | Sporting U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.