Pedro Álvaro
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Pedro Álvaro's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.6M-2.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.9M-2.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 66
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 33.3th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.3M vs market €2.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -22% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1350 (58% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.07
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.09
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 33 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.42 (rank 16)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1255
- Opponent strength
- 1255
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €930k – €2.5M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 28 pts; changed club; league level down (-43 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -15% (IQR -34% to +21%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1350 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 25 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 55%–230%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 68%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Aris Thessalonikis | Super League 1 | CB | 15 | 1350 | 58% | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.09 | 1255 | 1255 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | GD Estoril Praia | Liga Portugal | CB | 31 | 2630 | 86% | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.08 | 1363 | 1302 | 0.51 |
| 2023/24 | GD Estoril Praia | Liga Portugal | CB | 20 | 1789 | 58% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.07 | 1405 | 1279 | 0.58 |
| 2022/23 | GD Estoril Praia | Liga Portugal | CB | 30 | 2579 | 84% | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 1401 | 1252 | 0.68 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Kypello Elladas | Aris Thessalonikis | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Aris Thessalonikis | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1377 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jure Balkovec Super Lig · 2022 | 28 | €2.3M | €1.2M | fell |
| Nazım Sangaré Super Lig · 2020 | 26 | €1.6M | €1.7M | flat |
| Bünyamin Balcı Super Lig · 2024 | 24 | €3.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Merveille Bokadi Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 26 | €3.0M | €2.5M | flat |
| Alessandro Ciranni Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 26 | €1.0M | €650k | fell |
| Vanja Drkusic Premier Liga · 2024 | 25 | €2.8M | €5.0M | rose |
| Joel Andersson Superliga · 2023 | 27 | €1.5M | €1.3M | flat |
| Derek Cornelius Super League 1 · 2023 | 26 | €1.2M | €5.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Feb 2026 | Aris Saloniki | SD Taishan | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 1 Jul 2025 | Estoril | Aris Saloniki | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 3 Jul 2022 | Benfica B | Estoril | Free / loan | €300k |
| 31 Dec 2020 | B SAD | Benfica B | Free / loan | €450k |
| 5 Oct 2020 | Benfica B | B SAD | Free / loan | €450k |
| 31 Jan 2019 | Benfica U23 | Benfica B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Benfica U19 | Benfica U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Benfica U17 | Benfica U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Benfica U15 | Benfica U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Benfica Yth | Benfica U15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.