Thijs Dallinga

26 yrs · Striker · Netherlands
Bologna Football Club 1909 · Serie A · Foot: right · Height: 190 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: LowSample: LowDevelopment: ModerateContract: until 30 Jun 2028
Market value
€9.0M
Updated today
Estimated acquisition
€5.2M – €11.7M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€3.5M – €12.7M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€3.4M – €12.1M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€8.2M – €7.5M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€5.2M – €11.7M
Model value (performance-implied)€3.5M – €12.7M
Projected value (24 months)€3.4M – €12.1M
Dashed line: current market value (€9.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Thijs Dallinga's performance-implied value at EUR 3.5M-12.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 5.2M-11.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.4M-12.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.97x the positional average in the league (804 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)

PerformanceAbove average64.8th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral25.9 years
Acquisition costNeutralest. €8.5M vs market €9.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-36% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapNegativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentModerate
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.93
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceLow

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €18.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 901 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
804 (24% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.56
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.49
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
65 (Above average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.93 (rank 4)
Team strength (Elo)
1523
Opponent strength
1492
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Moderate
Trajectory
stable
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€3.4M – €12.1M

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -35% (IQR -61% to -22%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ▲Small sample: 804 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Bologna Football Club 1909Serie AST2380424%230.560.49149215230.93
2024/25Bologna Football Club 1909Serie AST31114533%330.470.46152115590.99
2023/24FC ToulouseLigue 1ST33251482%1430.610.67147714370.87
2022/23FC ToulouseLigue 1ST36236869%1210.490.67144813470.82
2020/21FC GroningenEredivisieST6612%000.000.38127313250.56

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Europa LeagueBologna Football Club 190911433321432
2025/26Italy CupBologna Football Club 190928000—
2025/26Supercoppa ItalianaBologna Football Club 1909121001663
2024/25Uefa Champions LeagueBologna Football Club 19098410101649
2024/25Italy CupBologna Football Club 1909426830—
2023/24Uefa Europa LeagueFC Toulouse8659421665
2023/24Trophee Des ChampionsFC Toulouse190001720
2020/21Knvb BekerFC Groningen1700—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Jérémie Boga
Serie A · 2023
26€14.0M€10.0Mfell
Nemanja Radonjic
Bundesliga · 2021
25€6.0M€4.0Mfell
Marcos André
Laliga · 2022
26€5.0M€2.0Mfell
Kasper Dolberg
Bundesliga · 2023
26€7.0M€13.0Mrose
Gianluca Lapadula
Serie A · 2017
27€8.0M€5.0Mfell
Jürgen Locadia
Bundesliga · 2020
27€8.0M€2.0Mfell
Andy Carroll
Premier League · 2015
26€10.0M€10.0Mflat
John Guidetti
Laliga · 2017
25€8.0M€3.0Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
23 Jul 2024ToulouseBologna€16.2M€18.0M
1 Jul 2022ExcelsiorToulouse€2.5M€1.1M
1 Jul 2021FC GroningenExcelsiorFree / loan€75k
1 Jul 2019Groningen U21FC GroningenUnknown€25k
1 Jul 2018Emmen U19Groningen U21€100k€25k
1 Jan 2018Emmen U19FC EmmenUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2017Emmen U17Emmen U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2012Hoogezand Yth.FC Emmen YouthFree / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.