
Thijs Dallinga
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Thijs Dallinga's performance-implied value at EUR 3.5M-12.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 5.2M-11.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.4M-12.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.97x the positional average in the league (804 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Above average | 64.8th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €8.5M vs market €9.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -36% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 901 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 804 (24% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.56
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.49
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 65 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1523
- Opponent strength
- 1492
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.4M – €12.1M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -35% (IQR -61% to -22%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Small sample: 804 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Bologna Football Club 1909 | Serie A | ST | 23 | 804 | 24% | 2 | 3 | 0.56 | 0.49 | 1492 | 1523 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Bologna Football Club 1909 | Serie A | ST | 31 | 1145 | 33% | 3 | 3 | 0.47 | 0.46 | 1521 | 1559 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | FC Toulouse | Ligue 1 | ST | 33 | 2514 | 82% | 14 | 3 | 0.61 | 0.67 | 1477 | 1437 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | FC Toulouse | Ligue 1 | ST | 36 | 2368 | 69% | 12 | 1 | 0.49 | 0.67 | 1448 | 1347 | 0.82 |
| 2020/21 | FC Groningen | Eredivisie | ST | 6 | 61 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.38 | 1273 | 1325 | 0.56 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Bologna Football Club 1909 | 11 | 433 | 3 | 2 | 1432 |
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Bologna Football Club 1909 | 2 | 80 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Supercoppa Italiana | Bologna Football Club 1909 | 1 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1663 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Bologna Football Club 1909 | 8 | 410 | 1 | 0 | 1649 |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | Bologna Football Club 1909 | 4 | 268 | 3 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | FC Toulouse | 8 | 659 | 4 | 2 | 1665 |
| 2023/24 | Trophee Des Champions | FC Toulouse | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1720 |
| 2020/21 | Knvb Beker | FC Groningen | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jérémie Boga Serie A · 2023 | 26 | €14.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Nemanja Radonjic Bundesliga · 2021 | 25 | €6.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Marcos André Laliga · 2022 | 26 | €5.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Kasper Dolberg Bundesliga · 2023 | 26 | €7.0M | €13.0M | rose |
| Gianluca Lapadula Serie A · 2017 | 27 | €8.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Jürgen Locadia Bundesliga · 2020 | 27 | €8.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Andy Carroll Premier League · 2015 | 26 | €10.0M | €10.0M | flat |
| John Guidetti Laliga · 2017 | 25 | €8.0M | €3.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Jul 2024 | Toulouse | Bologna | €16.2M | €18.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Excelsior | Toulouse | €2.5M | €1.1M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | FC Groningen | Excelsior | Free / loan | €75k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Groningen U21 | FC Groningen | Unknown | €25k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Emmen U19 | Groningen U21 | €100k | €25k |
| 1 Jan 2018 | Emmen U19 | FC Emmen | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Emmen U17 | Emmen U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Hoogezand Yth. | FC Emmen Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.