Naouirou Ahamada
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Naouirou Ahamada's performance-implied value at EUR 1.1M-2.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.1M-3.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.4M-4.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.06x the positional average in the league (679 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Average | 36.3th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.5M vs market €3.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -16% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1164 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 679 (22% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.13
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.23
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 36 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1402
- Opponent strength
- 1467
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.4M – €4.1M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -27% (IQR -56% to -18%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Small sample: 679 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | AJ Auxerre | Ligue 1 | CM | 15 | 679 | 22% | 0 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.23 | 1467 | 1402 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | Stade Rennais FC | Ligue 1 | CM | 3 | 55 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.23 | 1503 | 1450 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | Crystal Palace | Premier League | CM | 20 | 331 | 10% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 1556 | 1562 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga | CM | 17 | 1408 | 46% | 2 | 2 | 0.26 | 0.27 | 1520 | 1429 | 1.04 |
| 2022/23 | Crystal Palace | Premier League | CM | 8 | 86 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.26 | 1687 | 1536 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga | DM | 3 | 58 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 1586 | 1425 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga | DM | 6 | 253 | 8% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 1641 | 1462 | 1.06 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Crystal Palace | 2 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | VfB Stuttgart | 1 | 64 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Dfb Pokal | VfB Stuttgart | 1 | 17 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Reine-Adélaïde Ligue 1 · 2023 | 25 | €5.0M | €900k | fell |
| Abdou Harroui Serie A · 2023 | 25 | €2.7M | €1.8M | fell |
| Nenad Krsticic Serie A · 2016 | 26 | €2.2M | €1.8M | fell |
| Ianis Hagi Laliga · 2024 | 26 | €2.0M | €1.8M | flat |
| Amer Gojak Serie A · 2021 | 24 | €3.8M | €1.2M | fell |
| Sotiris Ninis Serie A · 2013 | 23 | €3.6M | €1.8M | fell |
| Moreto Cassamá Ligue 1 · 2020 | 22 | €1.3M | €3.0M | rose |
| José Gragera Laliga · 2023 | 23 | €2.5M | €2.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Jan 2026 | Crystal Palace | AJ Auxerre | Free / loan | €3.5M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Stade Rennais | Crystal Palace | Free / loan | €3.5M |
| 30 Aug 2024 | Crystal Palace | Stade Rennais | Free / loan | €8.0M |
| 31 Jan 2023 | Stuttgart | Crystal Palace | €12.0M | €5.5M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Juventus U23 | Stuttgart | €4.1M | €1.8M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Stuttgart | Juventus U23 | Free / loan | €1.8M |
| 5 Oct 2020 | Juventus U23 | Stuttgart | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Sept 2020 | Juventus U19 | Juventus U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Juventus U17 | Juventus U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Aug 2018 | Istres FC U17 | Juventus U17 | €90k | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Istres Jugend | Istres FC U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | SC Air Bel Jgd. | Istres Jugend | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.