Fredrik Oppegård
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Fredrik Oppegård's performance-implied value at EUR 0.8M-3.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.8M-2.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.7M-3.1M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 46
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 44.2th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €1.6M vs market €1.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +3% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1248 (41% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.09
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 44 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1402
- Opponent strength
- 1474
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €734k – €3.1M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 23 pts; changed club; team strength down (-112 Elo); league level up (+74 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +26% (IQR -29% to +128%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1248 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | AJ Auxerre | Ligue 1 | LB | 23 | 1248 | 41% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 1474 | 1402 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie | LB | 6 | 276 | 9% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1218 | 1632 | 0.50 |
| 2024/25 | AJ Auxerre | Ligue 1 | LB | 9 | 268 | 9% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 1406 | 1393 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | Heracles Almelo | Eredivisie | LB | 15 | 1350 | 44% | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.12 | 1365 | 1149 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | Go Ahead Eagles | Eredivisie | LB | 8 | 400 | 13% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 1372 | 1246 | 0.58 |
| 2022/23 | PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie | LB | 3 | 156 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1205 | 1649 | 0.58 |
| 2020/21 | PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie | LB | 1 | 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1199 | 1567 | 0.56 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Knvb Beker | PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Johan Cruijff Schaal | PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1593 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1559 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1780 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1513 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | PSV Eindhoven | 2 | 58 | 0 | 0 | 1606 |
| 2022/23 | Knvb Beker | Go Ahead Eagles | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maxime Poundjé Ligue 1 · 2016 | 24 | €1.5M | €4.5M | rose |
| Lukas Pokorny Ligue 1 · 2017 | 24 | €1.5M | €500k | fell |
| Óscar Mingueza Laliga · 2023 | 24 | €2.5M | €20.0M | rose |
| Théo Pellenard Ligue 1 · 2018 | 24 | €2.0M | €1.2M | fell |
| Giuseppe Pezzella Serie A · 2020 | 23 | €2.4M | €5.0M | rose |
| Steeve Yago Ligue 1 · 2016 | 24 | €1.3M | €2.0M | rose |
| Fallou Diagne Ligue 1 · 2015 | 26 | €1.5M | €1.5M | flat |
| Molla Wagué Serie A · 2016 | 25 | €2.0M | €1.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Jan 2025 | PSV | AJ Auxerre | €500k | €600k |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Heracles Almelo | PSV | Free / loan | €600k |
| 30 Jan 2024 | PSV | Heracles Almelo | Free / loan | €600k |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Go Ahead Eagles | PSV | Free / loan | €650k |
| 29 Jan 2023 | PSV | Go Ahead Eagles | Free / loan | €600k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | PSV U21 | PSV | Unknown | €400k |
| 1 Jan 2021 | PSV U18 | PSV U21 | Unknown | €250k |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Vålerenga Yth. | PSV U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 30 Jun 2020 | PSV U19 | Vålerenga Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 2 Aug 2019 | Vålerenga Yth. | PSV U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 24 Jan 2017 | KFUM Oslo Yth. | Vålerenga Yth. | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.