Óscar Mingueza
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Óscar Mingueza's performance-implied value at EUR 3.9M-15.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 9.4M-18.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 7.3M-16.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 31
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 79th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €14.3M vs market €18.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -32% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1968 (57% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.23
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.22
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 79 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1498
- Opponent strength
- 1502
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €7.3M – €16.5M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 23 pts; role change LB -> RB; relative output down 39% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -31% (IQR -52% to -24%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Celta de Vigo | Laliga | RB | 34 | 1968 | 58% | 1 | 4 | 0.23 | 0.22 | 1502 | 1498 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Celta de Vigo | Laliga | LB | 34 | 2739 | 80% | 4 | 6 | 0.33 | 0.36 | 1509 | 1476 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Celta de Vigo | Laliga | RM | 38 | 3002 | 88% | 2 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.19 | 1492 | 1449 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | Celta de Vigo | Laliga | RB | 21 | 1284 | 38% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1504 | 1441 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | FC Barcelona | Laliga | RB | 19 | 891 | 26% | 0 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.09 | 1500 | 1686 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | FC Barcelona | Laliga | CB | 27 | 1901 | 56% | 2 | 2 | 0.19 | 0.11 | 1540 | 1743 | 1.10 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Celta de Vigo | 11 | 731 | 0 | 1 | 1509 |
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Celta de Vigo | 2 | 240 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Celta de Vigo | 2 | 165 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Celta de Vigo | 3 | 116 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | Celta de Vigo | 2 | 145 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | FC Barcelona | 5 | 219 | 0 | 0 | 1709 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | FC Barcelona | 2 | 142 | 0 | 0 | 1630 |
| 2021/22 | Copa Del Rey | FC Barcelona | 1 | 90 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2020/21 | Copa Del Rey | FC Barcelona | 5 | 465 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | FC Barcelona | 5 | 242 | 0 | 1 | 1541 |
| 2020/21 | Supercopa | FC Barcelona | 2 | 188 | 0 | 0 | 1575 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola Milenković Serie A · 2023 | 26 | €18.0M | €35.0M | rose |
| Duje Caleta-Car Ligue 1 · 2022 | 26 | €16.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Manuel Lazzari Serie A · 2022 | 29 | €15.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Ryan Bertrand Premier League · 2017 | 28 | €20.0M | €15.0M | fell |
| Ko Itakura Bundesliga · 2024 | 27 | €12.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Cédric Soares Premier League · 2019 | 28 | €12.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Séamus Coleman Premier League · 2016 | 28 | €17.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Winston Reid Premier League · 2016 | 28 | €9.0M | €7.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jul 2022 | Barcelona | Celta de Vigo | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 1 Nov 2020 | Barcelona B | Barcelona | Unknown | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Barça U19 | Barcelona B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Barça U18 | Barça U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Barça U16 | Barça U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Barça Youth | Barça U16 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.