Sebastian Tounekti
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Sebastian Tounekti's performance-implied value at EUR 1.2M-5.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.1M-8.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.5M-8.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.48x the positional average in the league (1259 minutes, league coefficient 0.31). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 50
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 42.6th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 24 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €4.5M vs market €5.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -9% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.31 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1259 (42% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.21
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.20
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 43 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.31 (rank 26)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1406
- Opponent strength
- 1184
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.5M – €8.2M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -21% (IQR -38% to +5%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1259 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 12 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 75%–114%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 67%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Celtic FC | Scottish Premiership | LW | 22 | 1259 | 42% | 2 | 1 | 0.21 | 0.20 | 1184 | 1406 | 0.31 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Celtic FC | 10 | 654 | 0 | 0 | 1511 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Hammarby IF | 4 | 370 | 0 | 0 | 1315 |
| 2025/26 | Scottish Fa Cup | Celtic FC | 4 | 195 | 2 | 1 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Tunisia | 3 | 83 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Fotballklubben Bodø/Glimt | 2 | 171 | 0 | 0 | 1257 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Fotballklubben Bodø/Glimt | 2 | 51 | 0 | 0 | 1428 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson Muleka Super Lig · 2024 | 25 | €4.0M | €2.8M | fell |
| Mateo García Super League 1 · 2021 | 25 | €1.8M | €1.8M | flat |
| Bright Osayi-Samuel Super Lig · 2021 | 23 | €3.4M | €7.0M | rose |
| Mikael Anderson Superliga · 2021 | 23 | €1.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Ross McCausland Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 21 | €1.5M | €750k | fell |
| Henry Onyekuru Super League 1 · 2022 | 25 | €5.0M | €4.5M | flat |
| Mateus Vital Super League 1 · 2022 | 24 | €2.5M | €3.0M | rose |
| Halil Dervişoğlu Super Lig · 2022 | 23 | €3.0M | €1.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Sept 2025 | Hammarby | Celtic | €6.4M | €1.2M |
| 26 Feb 2025 | Haugesund | Hammarby | €1.2M | €1.0M |
| 10 Aug 2023 | Ranheim | Haugesund | Free / loan | €300k |
| 16 Jun 2023 | Haugesund | Ranheim | Free / loan | €350k |
| 30 Aug 2022 | Bodø/Glimt | Haugesund | Unknown | €200k |
| 30 Jun 2022 | FC Groningen | Bodø/Glimt | Free / loan | €200k |
| 31 Aug 2021 | Bodø/Glimt | FC Groningen | Free / loan | €200k |
| 30 Mar 2020 | Tromsdalen | Bodø/Glimt | Unknown | €25k |
| 19 Jan 2018 | Tromsdalen Yth. | Tromsdalen | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.