Christian Marques
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Christian Marques's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.9M-2.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.1M-3.6M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 54
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 22.2th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €2.0M vs market €2.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +6% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2716 (89% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.03
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 22 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1194
- Opponent strength
- 1340
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.1M – €3.6M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -24% (IQR -48% to -16%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 66 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 57%–168%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 76%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | CD Tondela | Liga Portugal | CB | 31 | 2716 | 89% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1340 | 1194 | 0.58 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baris Yardimci Super Lig · 2016 | 24 | €1.8M | €1.5M | flat |
| Nihad Mujakic Super Lig · 2023 | 25 | €1.4M | €1.0M | fell |
| Thomas Wils Jupiler Pro League · 2013 | 23 | €1.0M | €500k | fell |
| Pedrão Liga Portugal · 2022 | 25 | €1.5M | €1.2M | fell |
| Loret Sadiku Super Lig · 2016 | 25 | €2.4M | €1.3M | fell |
| Yvan Erichot Jupiler Pro League · 2016 | 26 | €1.7M | €800k | fell |
| Sergiy Chobotenko Premier Liga · 2021 | 24 | €700k | €600k | flat |
| Yevgen Opanasenko Premier Liga · 2013 | 23 | €700k | €700k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Jul 2025 | Yverdon Sport | Tondela | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 7 Sept 2023 | Wolves U21 | Yverdon Sport | Free / loan | €200k |
| 12 Dec 2022 | Forest Green | Wolves U21 | Free / loan | €200k |
| 1 Sept 2022 | Wolves U21 | Forest Green | Free / loan | €200k |
| 4 Jan 2022 | B SAD | Wolves U23 | Free / loan | €200k |
| 31 Aug 2021 | Wolves U23 | B SAD | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Wolves U18 | Wolves U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 22 Mar 2019 | GC Zürich U16 | Wolves U18 | €620k | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | GC Zürich U15 | GC Zürich U16 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 22 Mar 2017 | YF Juventus Jgd | GC Zürich U15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 12 Aug 2013 | FC Dübendorf J | YF Juventus Jgd | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.