
Sergiy Chobotenko
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Sergiy Chobotenko's performance-implied value at EUR 0.7M-1.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.5M-1.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.6M-1.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 37
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 40.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €930k vs market €1.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -44% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.25 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2223 (82% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.12
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.08
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 40 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.25 (rank 30)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1290
- Opponent strength
- 1174
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €556k – €1.5M
Trajectory drivers: relative output up 96% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -48% (IQR -62% to -23%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 11 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 108%–176%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 82%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FK Polissya Zhytomyr | Premier Liga | CB | 25 | 2223 | 82% | 1 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.08 | 1174 | 1290 | 0.25 |
| 2024/25 | FK Polissya Zhytomyr | Premier Liga | CB | 23 | 2025 | 75% | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 1171 | 1236 | 0.28 |
| 2023/24 | FK Polissya Zhytomyr | Premier Liga | CB | 28 | 2416 | 89% | 0 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 1276 | 1265 | 0.34 |
| 2022/23 | Kolos Kovalivka | Premier Liga | CB | 26 | 2295 | 85% | 2 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.10 | 1293 | 1191 | 0.38 |
| 2021/22 | FK Mariupol | Premier Liga | CB | 5 | 450 | 28% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1248 | 1139 | 0.45 |
| 2020/21 | FK Mariupol | Premier Liga | CB | 23 | 1990 | 85% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1304 | 1222 | 0.49 |
| 2019/20 | FK Mariupol | Premier Liga | CB | 21 | 1675 | 85% | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.13 | 1360 | 1267 | 0.54 |
| 2018/19 | FK Mariupol | Premier Liga | CB | 15 | 1094 | 55% | 0 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 1304 | 1310 | 0.57 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | FK Polissya Zhytomyr | 5 | 387 | 0 | 0 | 1398 |
| 2024/25 | Ukrainian Cup | FK Polissya Zhytomyr | 3 | 285 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | FK Polissya Zhytomyr | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1358 |
| 2023/24 | Ukrainian Cup | FK Polissya Zhytomyr | 3 | 330 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Ukrainian Cup | FK Mariupol | 2 | 106 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | FK Mariupol | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1479 |
| 2019/20 | Ukrainian Cup | FK Mariupol | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | FK Mariupol | 2 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 1369 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oleksandr Svatok Premier Liga · 2024 | 30 | €2.0M | €1.2M | fell |
| François Moubandje Super Lig · 2021 | 31 | €1.7M | €200k | fell |
| Uğur Çiftçi Super Lig · 2021 | 29 | €1.8M | €2.1M | flat |
| Frankie Kent Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 29 | €1.2M | €400k | fell |
| Giannis Kotsiras Super League 1 · 2021 | 29 | €600k | €800k | rose |
| Robin Yalçın Super Lig · 2021 | 27 | €2.0M | €800k | fell |
| Semih Kaya Super Lig · 2021 | 30 | €900k | €400k | fell |
| Fabiano Super League 1 · 2023 | 32 | €900k | €600k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2023 | Kolos Kovalivka | Polissya | Free / loan | €600k |
| 26 Aug 2022 | FC Mariupol | Kolos Kovalivka | Free / loan | €600k |
| 22 Jul 2019 | Shakhtar II | FC Mariupol | Free / loan | €600k |
| 30 Jun 2019 | FC Mariupol | Shakhtar II | Free / loan | €600k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Shakhtar II | FC Mariupol | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 9 Aug 2017 | Dynamo Kyiv II | Shakhtar II | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 10 Jul 2015 | Dynamo Kyiv U19 | Dynamo Kyiv II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Dynamo Kyiv U17 | Dynamo Kyiv U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.