Sergiy Chobotenko

29 yrs · Centre-back · Ukraine
FK Polissya Zhytomyr · Premier Liga · Foot: right · Height: 193 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2029
Market value
€1.5M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€501k – €1.3M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€717k – €1.5M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€556k – €1.5M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€619k – €1.0M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€501k – €1.3M
Model value (performance-implied)€717k – €1.5M
Projected value (24 months)€556k – €1.5M
Dashed line: current market value (€1.5M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Sergiy Chobotenko's performance-implied value at EUR 0.7M-1.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.5M-1.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.6M-1.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 37

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAverage40.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable29.5 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €930k vs market €1.5M
Expected appreciationVery low-44% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapSmallweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.25
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €1.5M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2223 (82% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.12
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.08
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
40 (Average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.25 (rank 30)
Team strength (Elo)
1290
Opponent strength
1174
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€556k – €1.5M

Trajectory drivers: relative output up 96% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -48% (IQR -62% to -23%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
11 (DEF)
Relative output kept
108%–176%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
82%
Confidence
Low

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26FK Polissya ZhytomyrPremier LigaCB25222382%120.120.08117412900.25
2024/25FK Polissya ZhytomyrPremier LigaCB23202575%100.040.04117112360.28
2023/24FK Polissya ZhytomyrPremier LigaCB28241689%020.070.07127612650.34
2022/23Kolos KovalivkaPremier LigaCB26229585%210.120.10129311910.38
2021/22FK MariupolPremier LigaCB545028%000.000.06124811390.45
2020/21FK MariupolPremier LigaCB23199085%000.000.03130412220.49
2019/20FK MariupolPremier LigaCB21167585%200.110.13136012670.54
2018/19FK MariupolPremier LigaCB15109455%010.080.08130413100.57

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Conference League QualifyingFK Polissya Zhytomyr5387001398
2024/25Ukrainian CupFK Polissya Zhytomyr328500—
2024/25Uefa Conference League QualifyingFK Polissya Zhytomyr2180001358
2023/24Ukrainian CupFK Polissya Zhytomyr333000—
2020/21Ukrainian CupFK Mariupol210610—
2019/20Uefa Europa League QualifyingFK Mariupol2180001479
2019/20Ukrainian CupFK Mariupol112000—
2018/19Uefa Europa League QualifyingFK Mariupol222001369

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Oleksandr Svatok
Premier Liga · 2024
30€2.0M€1.2Mfell
François Moubandje
Super Lig · 2021
31€1.7M€200kfell
Uğur Çiftçi
Super Lig · 2021
29€1.8M€2.1Mflat
Frankie Kent
Scottish Premiership · 2024
29€1.2M€400kfell
Giannis Kotsiras
Super League 1 · 2021
29€600k€800krose
Robin Yalçın
Super Lig · 2021
27€2.0M€800kfell
Semih Kaya
Super Lig · 2021
30€900k€400kfell
Fabiano
Super League 1 · 2023
32€900k€600kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2023Kolos KovalivkaPolissyaFree / loan€600k
26 Aug 2022FC MariupolKolos KovalivkaFree / loan€600k
22 Jul 2019Shakhtar IIFC MariupolFree / loan€600k
30 Jun 2019FC MariupolShakhtar IIFree / loan€600k
1 Jul 2018Shakhtar IIFC MariupolFree / loanData unavailable
9 Aug 2017Dynamo Kyiv IIShakhtar IIFree / loanData unavailable
10 Jul 2015Dynamo Kyiv U19Dynamo Kyiv IIUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2013Dynamo Kyiv U17Dynamo Kyiv U19UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.