Younes Bakiz
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Younes Bakiz's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-1.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.5M-1.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.7M-1.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.87x the positional average in the league (1160 minutes, league coefficient 0.47). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 73
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 15.5th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €833k vs market €1.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -31% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.47 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1160 (59% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.39
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.35
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 16 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.47 (rank 12)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1213
- Opponent strength
- 1272
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €714k – €1.6M
Trajectory drivers: league level up (+45 Elo); role change LW -> AM; relative output down 33% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -48% (IQR -59% to +3%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1160 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.47 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 23 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 68%–122%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 65%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Silkeborg IF | Superliga | AM | 19 | 1160 | 59% | 2 | 3 | 0.39 | 0.35 | 1272 | 1213 | 0.47 |
| 2024/25 | Silkeborg IF | Superliga | LW | 19 | 1435 | 72% | 7 | 5 | 0.75 | 0.55 | 1295 | 1264 | 0.38 |
| 2022/23 | Aalborg BK | Superliga | LW | 11 | 658 | 33% | 4 | 0 | 0.55 | 0.41 | 1250 | 1216 | 0.47 |
| 2021/22 | Viborg FF | Superliga | LW | 17 | 1256 | 63% | 3 | 2 | 0.36 | 0.43 | 1313 | 1234 | 0.45 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Silkeborg IF | 3 | 248 | 0 | 1 | 1377 |
| 2025/26 | Oddset Pokalen | Silkeborg IF | 2 | 118 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Oddset Pokalen | Silkeborg IF | 4 | 317 | 3 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Silkeborg IF | 2 | 131 | 0 | 0 | 1443 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Silkeborg IF | 1 | 45 | 1 | 0 | 1539 |
| 2022/23 | Oddset Pokalen | Aalborg BK | 5 | 359 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jorman Campuzano Super Lig · 2023 | 27 | €1.5M | €1.7M | flat |
| Alen Halilovic Eredivisie · 2024 | 28 | €1.3M | €400k | fell |
| Halil Akbunar Super Lig · 2020 | 27 | €1.1M | €3.5M | rose |
| Joseph Attamah Super Lig · 2022 | 28 | €1.5M | €500k | fell |
| Hannes Van Der Bruggen Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 28 | €1.0M | €550k | fell |
| Taylan Antalyalı Super Lig · 2024 | 29 | €1.6M | €700k | fell |
| Samuel Bastien Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 26 | €2.2M | €1.1M | fell |
| Evgeniy Kharin Premier Liga · 2022 | 27 | €1.5M | €1.5M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | Aalborg BK | Silkeborg IF | €400k | €700k |
| 31 Aug 2022 | Viborg FF | Aalborg BK | Unknown | €450k |
| 1 Aug 2020 | FC Roskilde | Viborg FF | Free / loan | €200k |
| 29 Jul 2018 | FC Roskilde U19 | FC Roskilde | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | FCR Youth | FC Roskilde U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.