Kevin Pina
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Kevin Pina's performance-implied value at EUR 1.6M-5.1M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.3M-4.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.3M-3.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.45x the positional average in the league (1195 minutes, league coefficient 0.56). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 25
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 60.9th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.8M vs market €5.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -60% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1195 (44% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.07
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.06
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 61 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1536
- Opponent strength
- 1320
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.3M – €3.7M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 33 pts; relative output down 52% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -12% (IQR -63% to +1%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1195 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 18 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 54%–153%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 56%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FK Krasnodar | Premier Liga | DM | 27 | 1195 | 44% | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.06 | 1320 | 1536 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | FK Krasnodar | Premier Liga | DM | 29 | 2095 | 78% | 3 | 1 | 0.17 | 0.12 | 1296 | 1511 | 0.55 |
| 2023/24 | FK Krasnodar | Premier Liga | DM | 15 | 376 | 14% | 1 | 0 | 0.24 | 0.11 | 1299 | 1405 | 0.49 |
| 2022/23 | FK Krasnodar | Premier Liga | DM | 15 | 1097 | 41% | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 1335 | 1405 | 0.53 |
| 2022/23 | GD Chaves | Liga Portugal | DM | 5 | 373 | 12% | 0 | 2 | 0.48 | 0.33 | 1406 | 1337 | 0.68 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | FK Krasnodar | 11 | 737 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Cape Verde | 3 | 251 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Russian Super Cup | FK Krasnodar | 1 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1478 |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | FK Krasnodar | 4 | 231 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Super Cup | FK Krasnodar | 1 | 75 | 0 | 0 | 1491 |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | FK Krasnodar | 5 | 385 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2022/23 | Russian Cup | FK Krasnodar | 7 | 504 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaba Kankava Premier Liga · 2015 | 29 | €4.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Sergiy Sydorchuk Premier Liga · 2018 | 27 | €4.0M | €3.5M | flat |
| Scott Brown Scottish Premiership · 2016 | 31 | €4.5M | €4.0M | flat |
| Sergiy Rybalka Premier Liga · 2017 | 27 | €3.0M | €1.3M | fell |
| Odil Akhmedov Premier Liga · 2017 | 30 | €5.0M | €6.0M | rose |
| Tolgay Arslan Super Lig · 2019 | 29 | €3.0M | €3.0M | flat |
| Jordy Clasie Eredivisie · 2020 | 29 | €2.4M | €2.5M | flat |
| Veli Kavlak Super Lig · 2015 | 27 | €6.8M | €1.8M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Sept 2022 | Chaves | Krasnodar | €1.2M | €300k |
| 21 Sept 2020 | Chaves B | Chaves | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Oliveirense | Chaves B | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 30 Jun 2019 | Sertanense | Oliveirense | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Aug 2018 | Oliveirense | Sertanense | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 30 Jun 2018 | Anadia | Oliveirense | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 30 Jan 2018 | Oliveirense | Anadia | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Unknown | Oliveirense | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Bairro Craveiro | Unknown | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.