Shuto Machino
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Shuto Machino's performance-implied value at EUR 1.9M-5.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.0M-5.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.5M-4.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.88x the positional average in the league (1063 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 22
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 50.7th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €3.4M vs market €4.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -32% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1063 (35% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.34
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.45
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 51 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1423
- Opponent strength
- 1496
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.5M – €4.2M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 29 pts; changed club; team strength up (+127 Elo); relative output down 42% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -18% (IQR -61% to +2%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1063 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Bundesliga | ST | 32 | 1063 | 35% | 3 | 1 | 0.34 | 0.45 | 1496 | 1422 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | Holstein Kiel | Bundesliga | ST | 32 | 1959 | 64% | 11 | 3 | 0.64 | 0.81 | 1513 | 1296 | 0.94 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 2 | 163 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | Holstein Kiel | 2 | 180 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Artem Kravets Bundesliga · 2016 | 27 | €4.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Nicolas de Préville Ligue 1 · 2019 | 28 | €4.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Stéphane Bahoken Ligue 1 · 2020 | 28 | €4.5M | €4.0M | flat |
| Valentin Stocker Bundesliga · 2016 | 27 | €4.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Aleksandr Kokorin Premier Liga · 2016 | 25 | €5.0M | €11.0M | rose |
| Ezequiel Ponce Laliga · 2022 | 25 | €5.0M | €5.0M | flat |
| Gabriel Strefezza Serie A · 2024 | 27 | €6.0M | €6.5M | flat |
| Alexander Esswein Bundesliga · 2017 | 27 | €2.5M | €1.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Jul 2025 | Holstein Kiel | Mönchengladbach | €8.0M | €5.0M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Shonan Bellmare | Holstein Kiel | €700k | €1.5M |
| 9 Jan 2021 | Gir. Kitakyushu | Shonan Bellmare | Free / loan | €300k |
| 1 Feb 2020 | Yokohama F. M. | Gir. Kitakyushu | Free / loan | €300k |
| 31 Jan 2020 | Gir. Kitakyushu | Yokohama F. M. | Free / loan | €300k |
| 1 Feb 2019 | Yokohama F. M. | Gir. Kitakyushu | Free / loan | €50k |
| 1 Feb 2018 | Riseisha HS | Yokohama F. M. | Free / loan | €50k |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.