Mousa Tamari
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Mousa Tamari's performance-implied value at EUR 5.1M-14.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 5.1M-10.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.4M-8.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.27x the positional average in the league (2228 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 12
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 73th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €8.4M vs market €10.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -41% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2228 (73% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.61
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.50
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 73 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1520
- Opponent strength
- 1485
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.4M – €8.8M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 18 pts; changed club; team strength up (+212 Elo); relative output up 72% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -61% (IQR -72% to -58%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Stade Rennais FC | Ligue 1 | RW | 33 | 2228 | 73% | 6 | 9 | 0.61 | 0.50 | 1485 | 1520 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | Montpellier HSC | Ligue 1 | RW | 15 | 1117 | 37% | 2 | 1 | 0.24 | 0.34 | 1460 | 1236 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | Stade Rennais FC | Ligue 1 | RW | 11 | 569 | 19% | 1 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.27 | 1416 | 1450 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | Montpellier HSC | Ligue 1 | RW | 27 | 1940 | 63% | 5 | 4 | 0.42 | 0.50 | 1469 | 1434 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | Oud-Heverlee Leuven | Jupiler Pro League | RW | 34 | 2776 | 91% | 6 | 4 | 0.32 | 0.34 | 1301 | 1338 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | Oud-Heverlee Leuven | Jupiler Pro League | RM | 31 | 2207 | 72% | 3 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.25 | 1366 | 1246 | 0.49 |
| 2020/21 | Oud-Heverlee Leuven | Jupiler Pro League | RW | 22 | 1177 | 38% | 1 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.26 | 1339 | 1268 | 0.55 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Jordan | 3 | 217 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | APOEL Nicosia | 4 | 252 | 0 | 0 | 1400 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gianluca Caprari Serie A · 2022 | 29 | €10.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Antonio Sanabria Serie A · 2023 | 27 | €10.0M | €2.8M | fell |
| Wahbi Khazri Ligue 1 · 2019 | 28 | €16.0M | €4.5M | fell |
| Éder Serie A · 2016 | 30 | €12.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Mario Balotelli Ligue 1 · 2018 | 28 | €24.0M | €5.5M | fell |
| Salomon Kalou Ligue 1 · 2013 | 28 | €7.5M | €3.5M | fell |
| Yura Movsisyan Premier Liga · 2014 | 27 | €10.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Balázs Dzsudzsák Premier Liga · 2015 | 29 | €11.0M | €4.3M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Feb 2025 | Montpellier | Stade Rennais | €8.0M | €6.0M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | OH Leuven | Montpellier | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 5 Oct 2020 | APOEL Nicosia | OH Leuven | €1.1M | €1.6M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Shabab Al-Ordon | APOEL Nicosia | €400k | Data unavailable |
| 30 Jun 2018 | Al-Jazeera Club | Shabab Al-Ordon | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Sept 2017 | Shabab Al-Ordon | Al-Jazeera Club | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Al-Ordon U19 | Shabab Al-Ordon | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.