Sergey Varatynov
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Sergey Varatynov's performance-implied value at EUR 0.8M-3.9M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.8M-2.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.2M-3.9M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 99
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 37.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.1M vs market €1.8M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +29% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2700 (100% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.03
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.05
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 37 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1326
- Opponent strength
- 1342
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.2M – €3.9M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +20% (IQR +15% to +48%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 25 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 48%–200%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 72%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FK Baltika | Premier Liga | CB | 30 | 2700 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 1342 | 1326 | 0.56 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | FK Baltika | 4 | 190 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | FC Khimki (-2025) | 1 | 23 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deyovaisio Zeefuik Eredivisie · 2020 | 22 | €2.7M | €3.0M | flat |
| Toni Borevković Liga Portugal · 2021 | 24 | €3.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Danilho Doekhi Eredivisie · 2021 | 23 | €3.0M | €17.0M | rose |
| Bruno Uvini Eredivisie · 2016 | 25 | €1.5M | €1.8M | rose |
| Milan van Ewijk Eredivisie · 2022 | 22 | €2.5M | €5.0M | rose |
| Jesper Daland Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 23 | €3.0M | €3.5M | flat |
| Giannis Skondras Super League 1 · 2013 | 23 | €1.5M | €2.0M | rose |
| Aleksandar Vukotic Jupiler Pro League · 2019 | 24 | €750k | €900k | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Sept 2024 | Khimki | Baltika | €250k | €800k |
| 18 Jul 2023 | Strogino Moscow | Khimki | Free / loan | €200k |
| 22 Feb 2022 | Loko Moscow II | Strogino Moscow | Free / loan | €25k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Ak. Loko U17 | Loko Moscow II | Unknown | €50k |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.