
Danilho Doekhi
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Danilho Doekhi's performance-implied value at EUR 6.6M-12.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 7.4M-17.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 5.4M-12.3M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 6
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 79.8th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €10.9M vs market €13.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -49% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 3060 (100% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.18
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.14
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 80 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1392
- Opponent strength
- 1491
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €5.4M – €12.3M
Trajectory drivers: relative output up 205% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -41% (IQR -51% to -8%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | 1.FC Union Berlin | Bundesliga | CB | 34 | 3060 | 100% | 5 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.14 | 1491 | 1392 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | 1.FC Union Berlin | Bundesliga | CB | 34 | 3060 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 1500 | 1394 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | 1.FC Union Berlin | Bundesliga | CB | 24 | 2160 | 71% | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.07 | 1520 | 1431 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | 1.FC Union Berlin | Bundesliga | CB | 25 | 2217 | 72% | 5 | 2 | 0.28 | 0.16 | 1518 | 1587 | 1.04 |
| 2021/22 | Vitesse Arnhem | Eredivisie | CB | 29 | 2605 | 85% | 3 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.08 | 1334 | 1379 | 0.60 |
| 2020/21 | Vitesse Arnhem | Eredivisie | CB | 32 | 2880 | 94% | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.05 | 1368 | 1394 | 0.56 |
| 2019/20 | Vitesse Arnhem | Eredivisie | CB | 26 | 2340 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 1339 | 1393 | 0.62 |
| 2018/19 | Vitesse Arnhem | Eredivisie | CB | 20 | 1405 | 46% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1335 | 1413 | 0.61 |
| 2015/16 | Excelsior Rotterdam | Eredivisie | CB | 1 | 9 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 1408 | 1206 | 0.58 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FC Union Berlin | 3 | 300 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FC Union Berlin | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | 1.FC Union Berlin | 3 | 260 | 0 | 0 | 1671 |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FC Union Berlin | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | 1.FC Union Berlin | 8 | 712 | 1 | 0 | 1550 |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FC Union Berlin | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Knvb Beker | Vitesse Arnhem | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Vitesse Arnhem | 2 | 173 | 0 | 0 | 1320 |
| 2020/21 | Knvb Beker | Vitesse Arnhem | 5 | 450 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Knvb Beker | Vitesse Arnhem | 4 | 355 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Knvb Beker | Vitesse Arnhem | 3 | 251 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Francesco Acerbi Serie A · 2017 | 29 | €12.0M | €12.0M | flat |
| Salif Sané Bundesliga · 2018 | 28 | €18.0M | €9.5M | fell |
| Federico Baschirotto Serie A · 2023 | 27 | €8.0M | €3.6M | fell |
| David García Laliga · 2022 | 28 | €20.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Dmitriy Kombarov Premier Liga · 2014 | 27 | €11.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Christian Günter Bundesliga · 2019 | 26 | €9.0M | €12.0M | rose |
| Mexer Ligue 1 · 2015 | 27 | €6.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Ryan Shawcross Premier League · 2013 | 26 | €10.0M | €9.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Union Berlin | Without Club | Unknown | €13.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Vitesse | Union Berlin | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 4 Jul 2018 | Ajax U21 | Vitesse | €250k | €250k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Ajax U19 | Ajax U21 | Unknown | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Excelsior U19 | Ajax U19 | Free / loan | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Excelsior Jeugd | Excelsior U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2006 | XerxesDZB Yth | Excelsior Jeugd | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.