Jorge Herrando
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Jorge Herrando's performance-implied value at EUR 2.3M-6.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.8M-5.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.8M-5.2M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 58
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 58.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €3.1M vs market €3.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -4% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1598 (47% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.11
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.12
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 58 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1427
- Opponent strength
- 1485
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.8M – €5.2M
Trajectory drivers: relative output up 42% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -13% (IQR -60% to +56%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Limited sample: 1598 league minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | CA Osasuna | Laliga | CB | 28 | 1598 | 47% | 0 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.12 | 1485 | 1427 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | CA Osasuna | Laliga | CB | 18 | 1364 | 40% | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.08 | 1551 | 1484 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | CA Osasuna | Laliga | CB | 19 | 1644 | 48% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 1515 | 1442 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | CA Osasuna | Laliga | CB | 1 | 26 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 1763 | 1455 | 0.98 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | CA Osasuna | 4 | 324 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | CA Osasuna | 5 | 336 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | CA Osasuna | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | CA Osasuna | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Copa Del Rey | CA Osasuna | 1 | 19 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sílvio Laliga · 2013 | 26 | €5.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Ezequiel Muñoz Serie A · 2015 | 25 | €4.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Chumi Laliga · 2023 | 24 | €2.0M | €2.0M | flat |
| Manuel da Costa Liga Portugal · 2013 | 27 | €3.0M | €3.8M | rose |
| Marios Ikonomou Serie A · 2016 | 24 | €2.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Federico Fernández Laliga · 2013 | 24 | €3.0M | €9.0M | rose |
| Óscar Gil Laliga · 2022 | 24 | €3.0M | €800k | fell |
| Cristiano Piccini Laliga · 2017 | 25 | €3.0M | €10.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2023 | Osasuna B | CA Osasuna | Unknown | €400k |
| 30 Jun 2022 | UD Logroñés | Osasuna B | Free / loan | €300k |
| 15 Jul 2021 | Osasuna B | UD Logroñés | Free / loan | €250k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Osasuna U19 | Osasuna B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.