Hicham Boudaoui
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Hicham Boudaoui's performance-implied value at EUR 3.4M-9.9M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 4.3M-9.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 4.4M-11.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.95x the positional average in the league (1694 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 64
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 68.8th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €5.8M vs market €12.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -43% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1694 (55% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.16
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.21
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 69 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1358
- Opponent strength
- 1481
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €4.4M – €11.7M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 24 pts; team strength down (-164 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -42% (IQR -60% to -19%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1694 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | OGC Nice | Ligue 1 | CM | 25 | 1694 | 55% | 1 | 2 | 0.16 | 0.21 | 1481 | 1358 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | OGC Nice | Ligue 1 | CM | 29 | 2440 | 80% | 2 | 4 | 0.22 | 0.20 | 1454 | 1521 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | OGC Nice | Ligue 1 | CM | 29 | 1609 | 53% | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.13 | 1461 | 1511 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | OGC Nice | Ligue 1 | CM | 27 | 1882 | 55% | 1 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.16 | 1437 | 1519 | 0.82 |
| 2021/22 | OGC Nice | Ligue 1 | RM | 29 | 1630 | 48% | 3 | 2 | 0.28 | 0.19 | 1428 | 1493 | 0.86 |
| 2020/21 | OGC Nice | Ligue 1 | AM | 25 | 1748 | 51% | 3 | 3 | 0.31 | 0.36 | 1441 | 1398 | 0.75 |
| 2019/20 | OGC Nice | Ligue 1 | RM | 9 | 491 | 19% | 1 | 2 | 0.55 | 0.34 | 1446 | 1456 | 0.82 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Africa Cup Of Nations | Algeria | 4 | 375 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Algeria | 2 | 109 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | OGC Nice | 3 | 105 | 0 | 0 | 1611 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | OGC Nice | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1631 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | OGC Nice | 5 | 330 | 0 | 0 | 1514 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | OGC Nice | 3 | 113 | 0 | 0 | 1560 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riccardo Saponara Serie A · 2017 | 26 | €11.0M | €8.5M | fell |
| Emmanuel Badu Serie A · 2017 | 27 | €5.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Nahitan Nández Serie A · 2022 | 27 | €13.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Mërgim Vojvoda Serie A · 2021 | 26 | €5.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Sandi Lovrić Serie A · 2024 | 26 | €8.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Otávio Ligue 1 · 2021 | 27 | €7.0M | €6.0M | flat |
| Paolo Faragò Serie A · 2019 | 26 | €5.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Tomás Rincón Serie A · 2017 | 29 | €8.0M | €8.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Sept 2019 | Paradou AC | Nice | €4.0M | €1.4M |
| 1 Jan 2018 | Paradou U21 | Paradou AC | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.