Michel Adopo
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Michel Adopo's performance-implied value at EUR 2.9M-10.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 4.0M-8.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 4.1M-11.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.69x the positional average in the league (3057 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 58
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 65.1th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €6.0M vs market €7.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -8% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 3057 (89% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.09
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.15
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 65 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1376
- Opponent strength
- 1515
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €4.1M – €11.4M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 19 pts; relative output down 25% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -31% (IQR -46% to -3%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Cagliari Calcio | Serie A | CM | 38 | 3057 | 89% | 1 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.15 | 1515 | 1376 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Cagliari Calcio | Serie A | CM | 35 | 2417 | 71% | 1 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.19 | 1517 | 1368 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | Atalanta BC | Serie A | CM | 10 | 102 | 3% | 0 | 1 | 0.88 | 0.26 | 1554 | 1709 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | Torino FC | Serie A | CM | 9 | 262 | 8% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.20 | 1500 | 1468 | 0.94 |
| 2019/20 | Torino FC | Serie A | CM | 2 | 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.27 | 1570 | 1373 | 0.82 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Cagliari Calcio | 3 | 202 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | Cagliari Calcio | 3 | 129 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Atalanta BC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1530 |
| 2022/23 | Italy Cup | Torino FC | 2 | 46 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morten Thorsby Serie A · 2022 | 26 | €7.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Michael Folorunsho Serie A · 2024 | 26 | €8.5M | €5.0M | fell |
| Antoine Makoumbou Serie A · 2024 | 26 | €4.5M | €4.0M | flat |
| Vladimír Darida Bundesliga · 2016 | 26 | €10.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Lucas Castro Serie A · 2016 | 27 | €5.5M | €7.0M | rose |
| Moritz Bauer Premier Liga · 2018 | 26 | €5.0M | €1.6M | fell |
| Milan Badelj Bundesliga · 2014 | 25 | €5.0M | €8.0M | rose |
| Angelo Fulgini Ligue 1 · 2022 | 26 | €12.0M | €7.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Atalanta | Cagliari | €3.8M | €4.0M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Cagliari | Atalanta | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 17 Jul 2024 | Atalanta | Cagliari | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 10 Jul 2023 | Torino | Atalanta | Free / loan | €500k |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Viterbese | Torino | Free / loan | €300k |
| 29 Jan 2021 | Torino | Viterbese | Free / loan | €200k |
| 25 Jan 2020 | Torino U19 | Torino | Unknown | €150k |
| 30 Jan 2018 | US Torcy U19 | Torino U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | US Torcy U17 | US Torcy U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | US Torcy Yth. | US Torcy U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | B.St-Georges | US Torcy Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.