Imari Samuels
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Imari Samuels's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-0.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 98
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 2th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €155k vs market €300k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +7% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.31 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1804 (61% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.05
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.09
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 2 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.31 (rank 26)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1121
- Opponent strength
- 1251
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €148k – €424k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +5% (IQR -2% to +47%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 16 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 90%–275%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 75%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dundee FC | Scottish Premiership | LB | 28 | 1804 | 61% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.09 | 1251 | 1121 | 0.31 |
| 2024/25 | Dundee FC | Scottish Premiership | LM | 2 | 90 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.21 | 1280 | 1122 | 0.34 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Scottish Fa Cup | Dundee FC | 2 | 50 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Scottish Fa Cup | Dundee FC | 2 | 26 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Theocharis Iliadis Super League 1 · 2021 | 25 | €250k | €300k | rose |
| Marko Mihojevic Super League 1 · 2019 | 23 | €600k | €1.6M | rose |
| Gerasimos Mitoglou Super League 1 · 2021 | 22 | €300k | €1.2M | rose |
| Kerim Alıcı Super Lig · 2022 | 25 | €550k | €250k | fell |
| Stefanos Evangelou Super League 1 · 2020 | 22 | €300k | €300k | flat |
| Jamie Brandon Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 26 | €225k | €250k | flat |
| Richard Taylor Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 24 | €400k | €375k | flat |
| Adam Tzanetopoulos Super League 1 · 2021 | 26 | €250k | €250k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Jan 2025 | Brighton U21 | Dundee FC | Unknown | €100k |
| 31 May 2024 | Fleetwood | Brighton U21 | Free / loan | €100k |
| 1 Feb 2024 | Brighton U21 | Fleetwood | Free / loan | €100k |
| 5 Aug 2022 | Reading U21 | Brighton U21 | Free / loan | €150k |
| 1 Sept 2020 | Reading U18 | Reading U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Reading Yth. | Reading U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.