Papa Ndiaga Yade
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Papa Ndiaga Yade's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-1.1M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.90x the positional average in the league (998 minutes, league coefficient 0.25). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 95
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 10.1th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €218k vs market €400k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -0% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.25 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 998 (37% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.18
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.37
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 10 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.25 (rank 30)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1068
- Opponent strength
- 1200
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €249k – €521k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -12% (IQR -37% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Limited sample: 998 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 18 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 87%–104%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 94%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Oleksandriya | Premier Liga | LW | 13 | 998 | 37% | 1 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.37 | 1200 | 1068 | 0.25 |
| 2022/23 | ESTAC Troyes | Ligue 1 | LW | 14 | 563 | 16% | 0 | 2 | 0.32 | 0.46 | 1420 | 1247 | 0.82 |
| 2021/22 | FC Metz | Ligue 1 | LW | 18 | 689 | 20% | 0 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.38 | 1451 | 1308 | 0.86 |
| 2020/21 | FC Metz | Ligue 1 | LW | 28 | 991 | 29% | 3 | 4 | 0.64 | 0.54 | 1410 | 1341 | 0.75 |
| 2019/20 | FC Metz | Ligue 1 | LW | 2 | 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.64 | 1509 | 1345 | 0.82 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | FC Sheriff Tiraspol | 4 | 239 | 0 | 0 | 1342 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | FC Sheriff Tiraspol | 1 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 1473 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Felipe Rodrigues Premier Liga · 2024 | 29 | €400k | €400k | flat |
| Nikolaos Vergos Super League 1 · 2021 | 25 | €200k | €450k | rose |
| Dan MacKay Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 23 | €300k | €300k | flat |
| Bruce Anderson Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 26 | €550k | €300k | fell |
| Jonah Ayunga Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 27 | €450k | €350k | fell |
| Hadi Sacko Super Lig · 2021 | 27 | €775k | €125k | fell |
| Chris Kane Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 30 | €350k | €350k | flat |
| Rostyslav Taranukha Premier Liga · 2024 | 27 | €300k | €200k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Feb 2026 | FC Sheriff | FC Oleksandriya | Free / loan | €450k |
| 1 Jul 2024 | FC Metz | FC Sheriff | Free / loan | €700k |
| 30 Jun 2024 | QRM | FC Metz | Free / loan | €700k |
| 27 Jul 2023 | FC Metz | QRM | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Troyes | FC Metz | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 25 Aug 2022 | FC Metz | Troyes | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Génération Foot | FC Metz | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 27 Oct 2017 | ASC La Linguère | Génération Foot | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.