
Sofiane Diop
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Sofiane Diop's performance-implied value at EUR 4.2M-15.3M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 6.2M-13.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 5.6M-16.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.18x the positional average in the league (2145 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 61
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 60.8th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €8.2M vs market €15.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -39% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2145 (70% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.42
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.48
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 61 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1358
- Opponent strength
- 1478
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €5.6M – €16.7M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 36 pts; team strength down (-164 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -9% (IQR -24% to +13%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | OGC Nice | Ligue 1 | LW | 33 | 2145 | 70% | 8 | 2 | 0.42 | 0.48 | 1478 | 1358 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | OGC Nice | Ligue 1 | LW | 28 | 1052 | 34% | 6 | 5 | 0.94 | 0.58 | 1443 | 1521 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | OGC Nice | Ligue 1 | LW | 10 | 500 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.25 | 1494 | 1511 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | OGC Nice | Ligue 1 | LW | 22 | 1231 | 36% | 1 | 4 | 0.37 | 0.36 | 1469 | 1519 | 0.82 |
| 2022/23 | AS Monaco | Ligue 1 | AM | 1 | 66 | 2% | 1 | 0 | 1.36 | 0.36 | 1503 | 1485 | 0.82 |
| 2021/22 | AS Monaco | Ligue 1 | LW | 30 | 1954 | 57% | 6 | 5 | 0.51 | 0.36 | 1407 | 1599 | 0.86 |
| 2020/21 | AS Monaco | Ligue 1 | LW | 32 | 2034 | 59% | 7 | 1 | 0.35 | 0.35 | 1446 | 1549 | 0.75 |
| 2018/19 | AS Monaco | Ligue 1 | AM | 13 | 743 | 22% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.18 | 1457 | 1396 | 0.82 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | OGC Nice | 5 | 228 | 0 | 0 | 1540 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | OGC Nice | 2 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 1641 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | OGC Nice | 7 | 408 | 0 | 2 | 1521 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | AS Monaco | 2 | 43 | 0 | 0 | 1670 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | AS Monaco | 7 | 302 | 1 | 1 | 1553 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | AS Monaco | 4 | 136 | 1 | 1 | 1540 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League | AS Monaco | 4 | 268 | 0 | 0 | 1621 |
| 2018/19 | Trophee Des Champions | AS Monaco | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | 1774 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naïm Sliti Ligue 1 · 2018 | 26 | €7.0M | €5.8M | flat |
| Luis Muriel Serie A · 2017 | 26 | €17.0M | €13.0M | fell |
| Serhou Guirassy Ligue 1 · 2020 | 24 | €8.0M | €10.0M | rose |
| Ermedin Demirovic Bundesliga · 2023 | 25 | €12.0M | €22.0M | rose |
| Mattia Destro Serie A · 2016 | 25 | €11.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Alberto Paloschi Serie A · 2014 | 24 | €6.0M | €6.0M | flat |
| M'Bala Nzola Serie A · 2023 | 27 | €8.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Adem Ljajic Serie A · 2017 | 26 | €11.0M | €12.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Aug 2022 | Monaco | Nice | €22.0M | €20.0M |
| 30 Jun 2020 | FC Sochaux | Monaco | Free / loan | €2.7M |
| 17 Sept 2019 | Monaco | FC Sochaux | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Rennes B | Monaco | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Rennes U19 | Rennes B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Rennes U17 | Rennes U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Chambray FC Jgd | Rennes U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Tours FC Jugend | Chambray FC Jgd | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.