Sofiane Diop

26 yrs · Left winger (also AM) · Morocco
OGC Nice · Ligue 1 · Foot: right · Height: 175 cm
Risk: LowConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€15.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€6.2M – €13.6M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€4.2M – €15.3M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€5.6M – €16.7M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€9.4M – €9.2M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€6.2M – €13.6M
Model value (performance-implied)€4.2M – €15.3M
Projected value (24 months)€5.6M – €16.7M
Dashed line: current market value (€15.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Sofiane Diop's performance-implied value at EUR 4.2M-15.3M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 6.2M-13.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 5.6M-16.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.18x the positional average in the league (2145 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: 61

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAbove average60.8th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral26.1 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €8.2M vs market €15.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-39% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery negativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.88
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskLow
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €20.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2145 (70% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.42
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.48
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
61 (Above average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.88 (rank 5)
Team strength (Elo)
1358
Opponent strength
1478
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€5.6M – €16.7M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 36 pts; team strength down (-164 Elo).

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -9% (IQR -24% to +13%).

Risk profile

Overall: Low

  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26OGC NiceLigue 1LW33214570%820.420.48147813580.88
2024/25OGC NiceLigue 1LW28105234%650.940.58144315210.88
2023/24OGC NiceLigue 1LW1050016%000.000.25149415110.87
2022/23OGC NiceLigue 1LW22123136%140.370.36146915190.82
2022/23AS MonacoLigue 1AM1662%101.360.36150314850.82
2021/22AS MonacoLigue 1LW30195457%650.510.36140715990.86
2020/21AS MonacoLigue 1LW32203459%710.350.35144615490.75
2018/19AS MonacoLigue 1AM1374322%000.000.18145713960.82

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Europa LeagueOGC Nice5228001540
2025/26Uefa Champions League QualifyingOGC Nice240001641
2024/25Uefa Europa LeagueOGC Nice7408021521
2022/23Uefa Champions League QualifyingAS Monaco243001670
2021/22Uefa Europa LeagueAS Monaco7302111553
2021/22Uefa Champions League QualifyingAS Monaco4136111540
2018/19Uefa Champions LeagueAS Monaco4268001621
2018/19Trophee Des ChampionsAS Monaco145001774

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Naïm Sliti
Ligue 1 · 2018
26€7.0M€5.8Mflat
Luis Muriel
Serie A · 2017
26€17.0M€13.0Mfell
Serhou Guirassy
Ligue 1 · 2020
24€8.0M€10.0Mrose
Ermedin Demirovic
Bundesliga · 2023
25€12.0M€22.0Mrose
Mattia Destro
Serie A · 2016
25€11.0M€6.0Mfell
Alberto Paloschi
Serie A · 2014
24€6.0M€6.0Mflat
M'Bala Nzola
Serie A · 2023
27€8.0M€6.0Mfell
Adem Ljajic
Serie A · 2017
26€11.0M€12.0Mflat

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
29 Aug 2022MonacoNice€22.0M€20.0M
30 Jun 2020FC SochauxMonacoFree / loan€2.7M
17 Sept 2019MonacoFC SochauxFree / loan€5.0M
1 Jul 2018Rennes BMonacoFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2017Rennes U19Rennes BUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2016Rennes U17Rennes U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2015Chambray FC JgdRennes U17Free / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2014Tours FC JugendChambray FC JgdFree / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Sofiane Diop · MoneyballAI