Hrvoje Smolcic
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Hrvoje Smolcic's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-0.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.7M-2.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.0M-2.9M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 70
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 26.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.4M vs market €2.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -18% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2229 (73% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.08
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.09
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 26 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1188
- Opponent strength
- 1248
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €998k – €2.9M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -11% (IQR -26% to +84%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 50 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 68%–191%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 54%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Kocaelispor | Super Lig | CB | 26 | 2229 | 73% | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 1248 | 1188 | 0.40 |
| 2023/24 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga | CB | 11 | 344 | 11% | 1 | 0 | 0.26 | 0.09 | 1460 | 1498 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga | CB | 9 | 467 | 15% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1535 | 1541 | 1.04 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | Eintracht Frankfurt | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Eintracht Frankfurt | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1372 |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | Eintracht Frankfurt | 2 | 135 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Eintracht Frankfurt | 3 | 120 | 0 | 0 | 1622 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kye Rowles Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 25 | €1.2M | €1.2M | flat |
| Rick van Drongelen Super Lig · 2024 | 26 | €1.4M | €6.0M | rose |
| Dino Mikanovic Superliga · 2019 | 25 | €1.0M | €2.0M | rose |
| Mehmet Yeşil Super Lig · 2023 | 25 | €1.0M | €750k | fell |
| Vanja Drkusic Premier Liga · 2024 | 25 | €2.8M | €5.0M | rose |
| Burak Öksüz Super Lig · 2022 | 26 | €1.1M | €800k | fell |
| Zan Zaletel Superliga · 2024 | 25 | €1.8M | €1.0M | fell |
| Ousmane Coulibaly Super League 1 · 2015 | 26 | €1.3M | €1.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Kocaelispor | Frankfurt | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 6 Sept 2025 | Frankfurt | Kocaelispor | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | LASK | Frankfurt | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Frankfurt | LASK | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | HNK Rijeka | Frankfurt | €2.5M | €3.0M |
| 2 Jan 2019 | HNK Rijeka U19 | HNK Rijeka | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | HNK Rijeka U17 | HNK Rijeka U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | HNK Rijeka Jgd | HNK Rijeka U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 13 Feb 2015 | NK Gospic 91 | HNK Rijeka Jgd | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 29 Aug 2014 | HNK Rijeka Jgd | NK Gospic 91 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 7 Feb 2014 | NK Gospic 91 | HNK Rijeka Jgd | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.