Hugo Duro
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Hugo Duro's performance-implied value at EUR 8.7M-29.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 7.5M-15.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 4.5M-13.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.97x the positional average in the league (1982 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 19
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 81.8th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €11.4M vs market €12.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -28% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1982 (58% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.45
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.49
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 82 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1497
- Opponent strength
- 1509
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €4.5M – €13.0M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -16% (IQR -34% to +54%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Valencia CF | Laliga | ST | 36 | 1982 | 58% | 10 | 0 | 0.45 | 0.49 | 1509 | 1496 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Valencia CF | Laliga | ST | 31 | 2172 | 64% | 11 | 3 | 0.58 | 0.65 | 1513 | 1463 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Valencia CF | Laliga | ST | 37 | 2996 | 88% | 13 | 4 | 0.51 | 0.56 | 1488 | 1459 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | Valencia CF | Laliga | ST | 30 | 1376 | 40% | 1 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.32 | 1496 | 1444 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | Valencia CF | Laliga | ST | 30 | 1845 | 54% | 7 | 3 | 0.49 | 0.51 | 1530 | 1487 | 1.05 |
| 2021/22 | Getafe CF | Laliga | ST | 1 | 11 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.57 | 1501 | 1458 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | Real Madrid | Laliga | ST | 2 | 53 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.31 | 1527 | 1788 | 1.10 |
| 2019/20 | Getafe CF | Laliga | ST | 12 | 374 | 11% | 1 | 2 | 0.72 | 0.59 | 1565 | 1579 | 1.16 |
| 2018/19 | Getafe CF | Laliga | ST | 6 | 241 | 7% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.44 | 1627 | 1583 | 1.14 |
| 2018/19 | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | Laliga | LW | 1 | 67 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.54 | 1572 | 1559 | 1.14 |
| 2018/19 | Real Valladolid CF | Laliga | LW | 1 | 52 | 2% | 0 | 1 | 1.73 | 0.86 | 1579 | 1407 | 1.14 |
| 2018/19 | Real Sociedad | Laliga | ST | 1 | 45 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.58 | 1593 | 1536 | 1.14 |
| 2018/19 | Levante UD | Laliga | ST | 1 | 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.60 | 1562 | 1495 | 1.14 |
| 2018/19 | FC Barcelona | Laliga | ST | 1 | 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.29 | 1590 | 1873 | 1.14 |
| 2017/18 | Getafe CF | Laliga | ST | 2 | 18 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.55 | 1514 | 1503 | 1.11 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Valencia CF | 5 | 219 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Valencia CF | 1 | 58 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Valencia CF | 2 | 150 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | Valencia CF | 3 | 155 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2022/23 | Supercopa | Valencia CF | 1 | 47 | 0 | 0 | 1823 |
| 2021/22 | Copa Del Rey | Valencia CF | 6 | 535 | 3 | 1 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | Real Madrid | 1 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1669 |
| 2019/20 | Copa Del Rey | Getafe CF | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | Getafe CF | 2 | 71 | 0 | 1 | 1630 |
| 2018/19 | Copa Del Rey | Real Valladolid CF | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Copa Del Rey | Getafe CF | 1 | 34 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Copa Del Rey | Valencia CF | 1 | 23 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Copa Del Rey | Getafe CF | 1 | 25 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Krzysztof Piatek Bundesliga · 2021 | 26 | €15.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Daniel Osvaldo Serie A · 2013 | 27 | €17.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Mateo Retegui Serie A · 2024 | 25 | €16.0M | €30.0M | rose |
| Xherdan Shaqiri Premier League · 2017 | 26 | €15.0M | €25.0M | rose |
| Shane Long Premier League · 2013 | 26 | €6.0M | €9.0M | rose |
| Youssef El Arabi Laliga · 2013 | 26 | €6.5M | €5.0M | fell |
| Andy Carroll Premier League · 2013 | 24 | €11.0M | €10.0M | flat |
| Jhon Córdoba Bundesliga · 2021 | 28 | €15.0M | €11.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2022 | Getafe | Valencia | €4.0M | €10.0M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Valencia | Getafe | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 31 Aug 2021 | Getafe | Valencia | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | RM Castilla | Getafe | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 27 Aug 2020 | Getafe | RM Castilla | Free / loan | €1.8M |
| 1 Aug 2020 | Getafe CF B | Getafe | Unknown | €1.8M |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Getafe U19 | Getafe CF B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.