Danila Vedernikov
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Danila Vedernikov's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-0.9M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-1.3M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 95
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 10.6th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €292k vs market €750k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -9% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1658 (61% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.05
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.13
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 11 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1218
- Opponent strength
- 1363
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €358k – €1.3M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -50% (IQR -56% to +10%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1658 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 25 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 48%–200%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 72%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Orenburg | Premier Liga | LB | 22 | 1658 | 61% | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.13 | 1363 | 1218 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | FK Nizhny Novgorod | Premier Liga | LM | 5 | 330 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.23 | 1323 | 1181 | 0.55 |
| 2023/24 | FK Nizhny Novgorod | Premier Liga | LB | 1 | 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.20 | 1397 | 1164 | 0.49 |
| 2019/20 | FK Rostov | Premier Liga | LB | 5 | 45 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 1345 | 1374 | 0.63 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | FC Orenburg | 3 | 147 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | FK Nizhny Novgorod | 6 | 495 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Russian Cup | FK Rostov | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bruno Nascimento Liga Portugal · 2016 | 25 | €700k | €200k | fell |
| Roy Gelmi Eredivisie · 2021 | 26 | €550k | €200k | fell |
| Zé Carlos Liga Portugal · 2024 | 26 | €700k | €2.0M | rose |
| Dimitrios Goutas Jupiler Pro League · 2017 | 23 | €850k | €400k | fell |
| Pedro Pinto Liga Portugal · 2018 | 24 | €600k | €300k | fell |
| Lucas Woudenberg Eredivisie · 2018 | 24 | €650k | €650k | flat |
| Igor Tyshchenko Premier Liga · 2015 | 26 | €600k | €300k | fell |
| Karim Hafez Super Lig · 2020 | 24 | €675k | €1.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Jul 2025 | Astrakhan | Orenburg | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 20 Mar 2025 | Chaika Pes. | Astrakhan | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 7 Mar 2025 | Without Club | Chaika Pes. | Unknown | €400k |
| 20 Feb 2025 | Pari NN | Without Club | Unknown | €400k |
| 17 Jan 2024 | Murom | Pari NN | Free / loan | €400k |
| 14 Sept 2023 | Pari NN | Murom | Free / loan | €450k |
| 13 Sept 2023 | Rostov | Pari NN | €100k | €450k |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Volgar | Rostov | Free / loan | €450k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Rostov | Volgar | Free / loan | €350k |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Kuban | Rostov | Free / loan | €350k |
| 28 Jan 2022 | Rostov | Kuban | Free / loan | €400k |
| 21 Jan 2022 | Volgar | Rostov | Free / loan | €400k |
| 14 Aug 2020 | Rostov | Volgar | Free / loan | €250k |
| 9 Aug 2019 | Krasnodar II | Rostov | €12k | €125k |
| 1 Jan 2018 | Krasnodar 2 | Krasnodar II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Krasnodar U17 | Krasnodar 2 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.