Vicko Sevelj
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Vicko Sevelj's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-1.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.76x the positional average in the league (2180 minutes, league coefficient 0.31). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 95
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 19.7th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €243k vs market €650k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -8% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.31 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2180 (73% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.08
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.17
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 20 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.31 (rank 26)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1178
- Opponent strength
- 1219
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €331k – €1.0M
Trajectory drivers: role change DM -> CM; relative output down 42% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +3% (IQR -35% to +10%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Contract ends in 11 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 10 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 77%–107%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 80%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dundee United FC | Scottish Premiership | CM | 28 | 2180 | 73% | 0 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.17 | 1219 | 1177 | 0.31 |
| 2024/25 | Dundee United FC | Scottish Premiership | DM | 30 | 2455 | 83% | 2 | 3 | 0.18 | 0.17 | 1241 | 1193 | 0.34 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Dundee United FC | 4 | 390 | 0 | 0 | 1332 |
| 2025/26 | Scottish Fa Cup | Dundee United FC | 2 | 174 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Scottish Fa Cup | Dundee United FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charilaos Charisis Super League 1 · 2021 | 26 | €700k | €1.0M | rose |
| Zisis Karachalios Super League 1 · 2023 | 27 | €600k | €600k | flat |
| Oleg Ilyin Premier Liga · 2023 | 26 | €500k | €300k | fell |
| Keanu Baccus Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 25 | €650k | €700k | flat |
| Jon Sporn Premier Liga · 2024 | 27 | €600k | €400k | fell |
| Matthew Smith Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 25 | €400k | €200k | fell |
| Dálcio Super League 1 · 2022 | 26 | €600k | €700k | flat |
| Djihad Bizimana Premier Liga · 2024 | 28 | €800k | €850k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | NK Radomlje | Dundee United | Free / loan | €250k |
| 3 Jul 2022 | FK Sarajevo | NK Radomlje | Free / loan | €250k |
| 30 Jun 2022 | NK Radomlje | FK Sarajevo | Free / loan | €250k |
| 8 Apr 2022 | FK Sarajevo | NK Radomlje | Free / loan | €150k |
| 4 Mar 2022 | Akron Togliatti | FK Sarajevo | Free / loan | €150k |
| 11 Feb 2022 | FK Sarajevo | Akron Togliatti | Free / loan | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Hajduk Split II | FK Sarajevo | Free / loan | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Hajduk U19 | Hajduk Split II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Hajduk U17 | Hajduk U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 8 Aug 2016 | GOSK-Dubrovnik | Hajduk U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.