Keanu Baccus
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Keanu Baccus's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-0.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.84x the positional average in the league (1256 minutes, league coefficient 0.31). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 87
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 2.4th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €227k vs market €700k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -25% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.31 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1256 (42% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.07
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.10
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 2 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.31 (rank 26)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1102
- Opponent strength
- 1217
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €317k – €680k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -18% (IQR -41% to +5%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1256 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 11 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 10 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 77%–107%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 80%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | St. Mirren FC | Scottish Premiership | DM | 16 | 1256 | 42% | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.10 | 1217 | 1102 | 0.31 |
| 2023/24 | St. Mirren FC | Scottish Premiership | DM | 26 | 1602 | 54% | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.14 | 1222 | 1192 | 0.34 |
| 2022/23 | St. Mirren FC | Scottish Premiership | CM | 28 | 2212 | 74% | 2 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.17 | 1303 | 1217 | 0.40 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Scottish Fa Cup | St. Mirren FC | 1 | 64 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Scottish Fa Cup | St. Mirren FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Scottish Fa Cup | St. Mirren FC | 2 | 129 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oleg Slobodyan Premier Liga · 2024 | 28 | €300k | €300k | flat |
| Muharrem Jashari Premier Liga · 2024 | 26 | €500k | €1.0M | rose |
| Ben Purrington Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 28 | €400k | €400k | flat |
| Alexandros Nikolias Super League 1 · 2021 | 27 | €500k | €300k | fell |
| Sergiy Kosovskyi Premier Liga · 2024 | 26 | €300k | €200k | fell |
| Adrián Colombino Super League 1 · 2021 | 28 | €600k | €300k | fell |
| Theofanis Tzandaris Super League 1 · 2022 | 29 | €250k | €300k | rose |
| Adrián Riera Super League 1 · 2024 | 28 | €450k | €250k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Aug 2025 | Mansfield Town | St. Mirren | Unknown | €700k |
| 1 Jul 2024 | St. Mirren | Mansfield Town | Free / loan | €900k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Western Sydney | St. Mirren | Free / loan | €600k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | West Sydney II | Western Sydney | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Blacktown City | West Sydney II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.