Zafer Görgen

26 yrs · Goalkeeper · Türkiye
Gaziantep FK · Super Lig · Foot: right · Height: 189 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€800k
Updated today
Estimated acquisition
€239k – €784k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€273k – €561k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€399k – €1.3M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€512k – €322k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€239k – €784k
Model value (performance-implied)€273k – €561k
Projected value (24 months)€399k – €1.3M
Dashed line: current market value (€800k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Zafer Görgen's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-1.3M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: 95

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceBelow average5.4th pct among GK peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral26 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €318k vs market €800k
Expected appreciationNeutral-9% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapSmallweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.4
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €800k

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1800 (59% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.00
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.00
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
5 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.40 (rank 18)
Team strength (Elo)
1167
Opponent strength
1253
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
insufficient
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€399k – €1.3M

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -18% (IQR -31% to -11%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
138 (all positions)
Relative output kept
76%–145%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
59%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Gaziantep FKSuper LigGK20180059%000.000.00125311670.40
2021/22Caykur RizesporSuper LigGK21805%000.000.00125311790.42
2020/21Caykur RizesporSuper LigGK21805%000.000.00134911740.37
2019/20Caykur RizesporSuper LigGK32147%000.000.00127412090.45

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Scott Fox
Scottish Premiership · 2014
27€500k€500kflat
Andreas Gianniotis
Super League 1 · 2021
29€700k€600kflat
Antonio Donnarumma
Super League 1 · 2017
27€700k€500kfell
Lefteris Choutesiotis
Super League 1 · 2021
27€350k€400kflat
Orkun Özdemir
Super Lig · 2023
28€600k€500kflat
Georgios Strezos
Super League 1 · 2019
24€400k€325kflat
Giannis Siderakis
Super League 1 · 2014
27€400k€250kfell
Nathan Goris
Jupiler Pro League · 2014
24€400k€200kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
30 Jun 2026Gaziantep FKC. RizesporFree / loan€800k
15 Aug 2025C. RizesporGaziantep FKFree / loan€300k
30 Jun 2025Bandirma SporC. RizesporFree / loan€300k
2 Feb 2024C. RizesporBandirma SporFree / loan€200k
30 Jan 2019ManisasporC. RizesporFree / loan€25k
19 Mar 2018Manisaspor U21ManisasporUnknownData unavailable
6 Apr 2017Manisaspor YthManisaspor U21UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.