
Zafer Görgen
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Zafer Görgen's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-1.3M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 95
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 5.4th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €318k vs market €800k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -9% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1800 (59% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 5 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1167
- Opponent strength
- 1253
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €399k – €1.3M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -18% (IQR -31% to -11%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 138 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 76%–145%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 59%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Gaziantep FK | Super Lig | GK | 20 | 1800 | 59% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1253 | 1167 | 0.40 |
| 2021/22 | Caykur Rizespor | Super Lig | GK | 2 | 180 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1253 | 1179 | 0.42 |
| 2020/21 | Caykur Rizespor | Super Lig | GK | 2 | 180 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1349 | 1174 | 0.37 |
| 2019/20 | Caykur Rizespor | Super Lig | GK | 3 | 214 | 7% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1274 | 1209 | 0.45 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Fox Scottish Premiership · 2014 | 27 | €500k | €500k | flat |
| Andreas Gianniotis Super League 1 · 2021 | 29 | €700k | €600k | flat |
| Antonio Donnarumma Super League 1 · 2017 | 27 | €700k | €500k | fell |
| Lefteris Choutesiotis Super League 1 · 2021 | 27 | €350k | €400k | flat |
| Orkun Özdemir Super Lig · 2023 | 28 | €600k | €500k | flat |
| Georgios Strezos Super League 1 · 2019 | 24 | €400k | €325k | flat |
| Giannis Siderakis Super League 1 · 2014 | 27 | €400k | €250k | fell |
| Nathan Goris Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 24 | €400k | €200k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Gaziantep FK | C. Rizespor | Free / loan | €800k |
| 15 Aug 2025 | C. Rizespor | Gaziantep FK | Free / loan | €300k |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Bandirma Spor | C. Rizespor | Free / loan | €300k |
| 2 Feb 2024 | C. Rizespor | Bandirma Spor | Free / loan | €200k |
| 30 Jan 2019 | Manisaspor | C. Rizespor | Free / loan | €25k |
| 19 Mar 2018 | Manisaspor U21 | Manisaspor | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 6 Apr 2017 | Manisaspor Yth | Manisaspor U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.