Jasper Dahlhaus

24 yrs · Left-back (also LM) · Netherlands
Fortuna Sittardia Combinatie · Eredivisie · Foot: left · Height: 176 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
Market value
€1.4M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€562k – €1.6M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€408k – €711k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€614k – €2.0M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€1.2M – €149k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€562k – €1.6M
Model value (performance-implied)€408k – €711k
Projected value (24 months)€614k – €2.0M
Dashed line: current market value (€1.4M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Jasper Dahlhaus's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-0.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.6M-1.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.6M-2.0M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 82

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceBelow average8.6th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral24.6 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €853k vs market €1.4M
Expected appreciationLow-14% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery negativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.43
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €1.4M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2118 (69% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.04
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.07
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
9 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.43 (rank 15)
Team strength (Elo)
1175
Opponent strength
1309
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
declining
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€614k – €2.0M

Trajectory drivers: relative output down 67% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -24% (IQR -36% to -16%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
  • ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
82 (DEF)
Relative output kept
65%–166%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
78%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Fortuna Sittardia CombinatieEredivisieLB26211869%010.040.07130911750.43
2024/25Fortuna Sittardia CombinatieEredivisieLB31175557%220.210.20131812110.50
2020/21Willem II TilburgEredivisieLM270%000.000.22133012650.56

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Knvb BekerFortuna Sittardia Combinatie19000—
2024/25Knvb BekerFortuna Sittardia Combinatie25500—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Georgios Mygas
Super League 1 · 2017
23€750k€300kfell
David Addy
Jupiler Pro League · 2015
25€1.0M€200kfell
Cédric D'Ulivo
Jupiler Pro League · 2014
25€800k€600kfell
Ilya Samoshnikov
Premier Liga · 2022
25€3.0M€2.5Mflat
Nikita Kakkoev
Premier Liga · 2022
23€900k€1.0Mflat
Duhan Aksu
Super Lig · 2023
26€700k€600kflat
Morgan Poaty
Jupiler Pro League · 2022
25€650k€500kfell
Joost van Aken
Eredivisie · 2017
23€2.0M€1.5Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2024FC EindhovenFortuna SittardFree / loan€450k
16 Jul 2021Willem II U21FC EindhovenFree / loan€100k
30 Jun 2021FC EindhovenWillem II U21Free / loan€100k
1 Feb 2021Willem II U21FC EindhovenFree / loan€100k
1 Jul 2020Vitesse U19Willem II U21Free / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2018Vitesse U17Vitesse U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2017Vitesse YouthVitesse U17UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.